Saturday’s MLB slate is a large one, with 16 games to choose from. That includes 12 games scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET or later, which is what this piece will focus on.
Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates:
Mets -1.5 runs (-105)
The Mets have had two disappointing losses sandwiched around the All-Star break. They blew a 5-0 lead vs. the Pirates in the final game of the first half and followed it up with a loss vs. the Pirates on Friday. The Mets have aspirations of winning the division – and possibly the World Series – so they can’t afford to lose games to a team like the Pirates.
I’m expecting them to right the ship on Saturday. They’ll send Tylor Megill to the mound, who has been an excellent addition to their pitching staff recently. He’s made four starts this season, and he’s pitched to a 2.33 xERA and an elite 13.0 K/9. The Pirates are good at making contact – they own the fifth-lowest strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers – but they rank just 27th in wRC+.
The Mets’ offense has underperformed all season, but they should be able to generate some runs vs. Wil Crowe. He’s pitched to a 6.05 ERA and 5.82 FIP, and the Mets are as healthy as they’ve been all season. Francisco Lindor did exit Friday’s game due to “side tightness,” but the rest of their opening day starters are back in action.
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox:
White Sox ML (-115)
This is a potential American League Championship preview. The Astros are tied with the Red Sox for the best record in the AL, and the White Sox are just 1.0-game behind. The White Sox are actually tied with both teams in the loss column, so the race for the top seed in the AL is extremely tight.
Both of these teams have potent offenses, but I’ll side with the White Sox given the pitching disparity. Chicago will send Lucas Giolito to the mound, while the Astros will start Jake Odorizzi. Giolito has been a bit disappointing to start the season, but he’s also been a bit unlucky. He ultimately owns a 3.58 xFIP, while Odorizzi is at 3.99. Giolito’s ERA at home is also more than 1.5 runs lower than his road ERA.
Finally, the White Sox are shaping up to be a preferred target for the sharps. The betting tickets are split nearly down the middle – the White Sox have received 57% of the bets – but Chicago has received 86% of the betting dollars. That’s a massive discrepancy, which suggests that the professional money is siding with the White Sox.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies:
Rockies ML (+200)
Let’s wrap things up with a long shot. The Dodgers are obviously the better team, but Coors Field is the great equalizer. The Rockies have stumbled to a dreadful 9-34 record on the road, but they transform into a completely different team at home. They’ve posted a 31-18 record in Colorado this season, and they’ve outscored their opponents by 45 runs.
They’ll also have Kyle Freeland on the mound today, which is a good matchup against Los Angeles. The Dodgers absolutely rake against right-handed pitching, but they’re much more pedestrian against southpaws. They rank just 10th in wRC+ vs. left-handers this season, which makes sense given that their lineup is loaded with elite left-handed hitters. I’ll roll the dice with the home-juggernaut Rockies at +200.
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