Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Red Sox vs. Yankees Showdown on July 18

The Red Sox are halfway to their tenth World Series title and the Yankees are on the verge of packing it up for the season. New York is a decent team, but that’s not good enough in the AL East. They’re an average hitting team and an average pitching team. The Red Sox aren’t world-beaters, but they win games with above average hitters, starters and relievers.

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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Captain’s Picks

Rafael Devers ($14,700 CP) — Jameson Taillon ($16,500 CP; $11,000) has a 4.97 xFIP, .354 wOBA and a .242 ISO when facing left-handed batters. Devers is Boston’s best left-handed batter against right-handed pitching, but that’s an understatement. Among all left-handed batters in baseball, his wOBA (.426), ISO (.367) and wRC+ (169) rank in the top 5 against right-handed pitching. His 52% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching is the best for any lefty.

Giancarlo Stanton ($13,200 CP) — Martín Pérez is struggling to keep the ball in the ballpark, and he has struggled to keep Stanton from trotting around the bases (2 HR in 8 at-bats). One of the few things that the Yankees are doing well this season is hitting left-handed pitching. Since June 1, Stanton has a .423 wOBA, .265 ISO and a 172 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. A peculiar stat worth mentioning for Stanton is that with his day/night splits, the difference is night and day. During the day, Stanton has a .287 wOBA and a .081 ISO. At night, he has a .399 wOBA and a .276 ISO.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Sunday Night Showdown [$50K to 1st] (BOS vs NYY)

Value Plays

Alex Verdugo ($6,800) — Statcast ranks Yankee Stadium as the most homer-friendly park for left-handed hitters. Jameson Taillon is allowing 2.4 HR/9 and a 51% fly ball rate to left-handed batters. When Taillon pitches to lefties at Yankee Stadium, it goes exactly how one would imagine — 6.93 FIP and 3.0 HR/9. Against right-handed pitching, Verdugo has a .387 wOBA, .201 ISO and a 143 wRC+.

Jarren Duran ($4,000) — The rich get richer; Boston called up their No. 3 ranked prospect after the All-Star break. In Triple-A this season, Duran hit 15 home runs in 46 games (.398 wOBA, .291 ISO and a 143 wRC+). During 2020, he spent the lost season adjusting his swing to increase his launch angle with the goal of becoming a power hitter. Before the adjustment, he had a below-average ISO in double AA with a 26.6% fly ball rate. So far this season, his fly ball rate is 38.5%. It appears that the swing changes have worked, but there have been many minor league power hitters that have failed on the big stage. However, not many of those failures were a top-ranked Red Sox prospect.

Fades

Martín Pérez ($15,600 CP; $10,400) — It looks like Martín Pérez’s old bugaboo is coming back to haunt him. During his time with the Rangers, he was infamous for allowing home runs. With the Twins and the Red Sox, he had been much better at keeping the ball in the ballpark, but over his last seven starts he is allowing 2.4 HR/9. His hard contact rate and fly ball rate have not seen significant increases, but his HR/FB rate has doubled to 21.9%. The spin rate on his pitches has dropped by 200 RPM since the beginning of the season, but his decline in performance could simply be due to the fact that he isn’t a good pitcher. On Sunday night, he will pitch in a hitter-friendly park against one of the best teams against left-handed pitching (109 wRC+, .329 wOBA and a .171 ISO).

The Outcome

The beauty of a showdown slate is that it’s one game in a vacuum. For Yankees fans, they can forget about their 2021 troubles, and enjoy the possibility of having Sunday evening bragging rights. Unfortunately, tonight is not that night. The Yankees will fair well against Martín Pérez, but so will the Rex Sox against Jameson Taillon.

Final Score: Red Sox 5, Yankees 4

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Sunday Night Showdown [$50K to 1st] (BOS vs NYY)

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