Monday features an 11-game slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET. You know, like almost every other slate. Let’s chat about it.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ryan Yarbrough, $8,600, Tampa Bay Rays (-250) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+200) — I’m quite surprised that Ryan Yarbrough ($8,600) and the Rays are the biggest favorites on this slate. For one, Yarbrough hasn’t exactly dominated this Orioles team, allowing eight runs (five earned) on 11 hits through 12 innings of work thus far. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the preferred split for this Orioles offense is left-handed pitching. In these matchups, the Orioles have a .324 wOBA, a .163 ISO and a 106 wRC+. I never go out of my way to back a lefty against the Orioles, as they usually hit them well, as seen by these numbers. If you’re on the side of the Rays, you’ll be happy to know that they are 11-7 on the moneyline when Yarbrough takes the mound this season.
Taking the mound for the Orioles is Spenser Watkins ($5,400), who was recently called up. He’s only thrown 10 1⁄3 innings and produced a 5.01 FIP (1.74 ERA, yikes) a 5.2 K/9 and a 5.2 BB/9. Watkins hasn’t been much of a strikeout pitcher in his career and has struggled with him command. Watkins taking the mound and a shaky Orioles bullpen certainly helps the line for the Rays but quite frankly, I think this is a game I’m just staying away from on the betting side.
Highest Projected Total
New York Mets (-105; 5.5 runs) at Cincinnati Reds (-115; 5.5 runs) 11 runs — It’s looking like we’ll be seeing some big offensive numbers at Great American Ball Park tonight. A massive double-digit total is projected with both teams sporting a 5.5 run total and the Reds slight favorites. The Reds have been a solid team hitting the over at 49-41-3 while the Mets have been one of the worst at 39-45-3.
What really has my attention in this one is the Mets against Vladimir Gutierrez ($7,400). For anyone confused, he’s the Vladdy you DON’T want to play. His number since the June 21 crackdown have been very SUS to say the least. Since MLB say “no, no, no” to sticky stuff, Gutierrez has a some of the worst numbers in the league amongst starters with at least 20 innings over that span. Since that time, he has a 6.26 FIP, a 2.01 HR/9, only a 5.2 K/9 and a 38.4% hard-hit rate allowed. The Mets are no offensive juggernaut don’t get me wrong but I can’t ignore those numbers I just gave. The DID just score 15 runs in that their last series against the Pirates, although they were almost swept in the process. Nonetheless, seeing numbers like that for Gutierrez, it’s hard not to side with the Mets here. The Reds are also in a great spot against Jerad Eickhoff ($5,000), but my attention will be on the Mets.
For what it’s worth, you can’t trust a guy who spells his name Jerad.
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Weather Notes
We have a ton of games with some sort of rain threat so I’ll list them below.
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves - Just a gross looking forecast. A delay is almost inevitable but I don’t think they end up playing. I’m not a weatherman though, I just look at the hourly forecast. So keep an eye on this one.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
JC Mejia, .404, 5.99
Chase De Jong, .383, 5.66
Casey Mize, .364, 6.41
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jon Lester, .243, 3.17
Zeck Greinke, .243, 3.66
Kevin Gausman, .248, 2.82
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jon Lester, .421, 6.68
Chase De Jong, .363, 5.42
Ross Stripling, .345, 5.20
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kevin Gausman, .181, 2.35
Kyle Gibson, .242, 3.23
JC Mejia, .248, 3.17
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, $8,700 — We don’t have a treasure trove of pitching options to choose from tonight so I’m rolling with Ohtani against the Athletics. His strikeout upside is high, as he sports an 11.6 K/9 on the season. During the month of July, the Athletics are slightly above league average in K% against righties at 23.2%, to go with a .293 wOBA and a .164 ISO. One of the most important pieces of information, in my opinion, has been the lack of patience at the plate for them. In the month of July, they have one of the lowest BB% at 7.3%, which ranks 25th. Walks have been one of the biggest issues for Ohtani, who has a 4.7 BB/9. If they’re going to do him favors and swing freely, thats where Ohtani is his best.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Xander Bogarets, Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, $5.400 — Along with Mr. Gutierrez, Ross Stripling ($8,500) has some of the worst numbers since June 21st. Overall, his numbers against righties have been bad all season long. So this sounds like a great opportunity for the Red Sox, right? Against righties, Stripling has a .345 wOBA, a 5.20 FIP and 11 of the 16 home runs he’s allowed on the season. Bogaerts continues to have some of the best power numbers on the Sox against righties and specifically on the road, boasts a .233 ISO against righties. The Sox are very much in play as a stack and I’m starting it with Bogaerts.
Save Big by Drafting
Michael Conforto, New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, $3,400 — Is he finally starting to show some signs of life!? It’s been a very long season for Conforto but he kinda, sorta, might be seeing some positive signs. The month of July has seen him post his highest ISO by a LONG shot at .205. His previous high for 2021 was .121, which came back in April. Since then, it’s been no higher than .085. I mean, it’s not a high bar to clear but still a very positive sign. With all the hate I’ve been flinging at Gutierrez, grabbing some Mets bets is ideal. Conforto allows you to do that on the cheap.
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