After watching Collin Morikawa become the champion golfer of the year in his first attempt at The Open, we now make our way to TPC Twin Cities (par 71, 7,431 yards) in Blaine, Minnesota, for the third ever 3M Open. For the first two editions of this PGA Tour stop, we saw Michael Thompson win by two shots a year ago at -19, and Matthew Wolff claim his first victory on TOUR the previous season at -21.
Without question, TPC Twin Cities, which was designed by the late Arnold Palmer, is one of the easiest venues used at the TOUR level. Both of the first 3M Opens produced cutlines under par and with temperatures above 90 degrees projected for all four days this week, another birdie fest is guaranteed to unfold in Blaine.
TPC Twin Cities is what we like to call a second shot course. Evident from the two first two champions, who are total opposites when it comes to length, both short and long hitters can succeed at this Palmer design, and to climb the leaderboard, you must have a tremendous week with your irons. For their two wins here, Thompson and Wolff ranked fourth and second in SG APP, respectively, and they both finished the week inside the top six in greens found.
As expected, the three par 5s at this par 71 rank as the three easiest holes on the scorecard. Racking up birdies on these holes is important, but par 4 efficiency has been king at TPC Twin Cities the past two years. Both Thompson and Wolff led their fields in SG on the par 4s when they took home the big check here in Blaine. Finally, this goes without saying when we are expecting very low scoring at any tournament, but having a great showing on these bentgrass greens at TPC Twin Cities is a must to contend. At last year’s 3M Open, five of the top-six finishers of the event ranked in the top 15 in SGP, including Thompson, who led the field.
Usually after a major, the following tournament delivers an underwhelming field, but this year’s 3M Open actually presents a decent group of golfers. While it is still a dramatic downgrade from The Open, four of the top-20 ranked players in the world will be teeing it up at TPC Twin Cities this week, including world No. 2 Dustin Johnson. After the slightly extended cut at The Open, we get back to the standard top 65 and ties moving onto the weekend following the first two rounds at the 3M Open. Below, I give you four of my favorite values of the week that cost $7,400 or less on DraftKings.
Chez Reavie, $7,400
Making his debut at TPC Twin Cities this week, Reavie has only missed one cut in his past six, with three top 25s over this span. We don’t have SG data from last week’s Open, but prior to his T59 at the major, Reavie had gained strokes T2G and on APP at five consecutive events. With a T18 finish, the veteran just showed us two weeks ago at the John Deere Classic that he has the tools to flourish at a birdie fest, and Reavie jumps off the page when we compare his DFS salary to his odds to win the 3M Open.
Via the DraftKings Sportsbook, Reavie carries +6500 odds to capture his third PGA title this weekend, which are the same odds as Stewart Cink, who is significantly more expensive at $8,700.
Adam Schenk, $7,400
Schenk checks all the boxes this week. He has been striking the ball well, ranking 29th in SGT2G and eighth in GIR across his last 12 rounds. Additionally, Schenk has been outstanding on the greens during this stretch, resulting in a heavy dose of birdies, ranking eighth in SGP and sixth in BOB%.
Eight times in his past 10 starts, Schenk has been competing on the weekend, most notably with a T4 two weeks ago at the John Deere Classic. That tournament was held at TPC Deere Run, which is also an unchallenging par 71 that features bentgrass greens, just like TPC Twin Cities. Schenk recorded a T41 at last year’s 3M Open, and he needs to be included in your player pool at this low price tag.
Kyle Stanley, $7,300
Stanley is very underpriced for his safety. On the back of some magnificent ball striking, the 33-year-old has advanced through the cut at eight of his previous nine tournaments. Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks second in both SGT2G and SG APP, and in his most recent start, Stanley had his best showing as a ball striker in over four years, gaining 10.2 strokes from T2G at the John Deere Classic.
Unfortunately, his flat stick was putrid, ranking second to last in SGP, limiting Stanley to a T41 finish. His putting can only improve from this performance, and assuming the elite work from T2G maintains, Stanley has excellent upside at TPC Twin Cities, where he finished T30 last season.
Bo Hoag, $7,100
Hoag carded a T12 at last year’s 3M Open and heads back to Blaine in very encouraging form. When we exclude his WD from the Palmetto Championship, Hoag has made five of his last six cuts with two top 15s mixed in this run. One of which was a T11 at last week’s Barbasol Championship, where Hoag amassed 11 strokes T2G and 6.8 strokes on APP.
He has now positively gained strokes in both major categories in three straight starts, and ranks first in SG APP when we breakdown this entire field’s last 12 rounds on TOUR.
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