Are you getting ready for the weekend? I am. So let’s set you up for a successful start and put some extra green in your pocket.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lance McCullers Jr., $9,200, Houston Astros (-186) vs. Cleveland Indians (+160) — The Astros are one again road favorites tonight, a scenario they’ve gone 16-14 in this season. McCullers has looked good since returning to the rotation midway through June, tossing 15 2/3 innings allowing five runs on 10 hits with 14 strikeouts. In those starts, he posted a .261 wOBA, with a 3.93 FIP and only a 23.8% hard-hit rate allowed. The Indians have not been a great home offense with just a .306 wOBA, a .167 ISO and an 88 wRC+.
From a daily fantasy standpoint, I can’t say I’m that crazy about targeting McCullers. The Indians aren’t a team you target to rack up strikeouts, as they have just a 22.7% K% against righties, which ranks them 21st in the league. While McCullers has been good in his return, he’s been struggling with his command a bit, walking nine in his three starts since returning. I do like the Astros to win this game against Sam Hentges ($5,800), who has a 5.26 FIP through 35 2⁄3 innings in the majors this season. When the Indians have been home underdogs this season, they’ve gone 5-7.
Other notable favorite: Griffin Canning ($7,600; -177) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Highest Projected Total
St. Louis Cardinals (-113; 6.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (-105; 6.5 runs) 12.5 runs — Sounds like we’re expecting some offense in Coors tonight, eh? A ridiculous 12.5 projected run total is set for this game with BOTH teams projected at 6.5 runs. Johan Oviedo ($5,400) and Chi Chi Gonzalez ($4,900) will be taking the hill tonight - which is essentially all you need to know why this total is so high (no pun intended). Let’s just quickly go through some stats on both pitchers and you can make your decision from there.
Oviedo hasn’t pitched a ton of innings this season but has a .409 wOBA and a 7.07 FIP through 14 1/3 innings on the road. Lefties have hit him the hardest, tagging him with a. .371 wOBA, a 5.80 FIP and only a 12.0% K%.
Gonzalez is a contact pitcher who has only a 5.3 K/9 through 69 2/3 innings this season. HIs 5.17 FIP is very close to his 5.81 ERA, indicating his struggles are warranted. He’s pitched better at Coors than on the road, as he’s only given up two of his 12 home runs here. He does have a 3.89 FIP at Coors, which is pretty impressive but his numbers have been going up lately. In the month of June alone, Gonzalez was hit for 22 runs on 35 hits in just 25 2/3 innings, giving him a 5.81 FIP that month.
We have rain in the forecast for a few games. None of them seem as if they’re in real danger of being postponed but as always, take a look closer to first pitch.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Alec Mills, .420, 5.81
Keegan Akin, .398, 3.93
Alek Manoah, .381, 6.83
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jordan Montgomery, .194, 2.59
Max Scherzer, .220, 2.36
Taijuan Walker, .230, 2.92
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Sam Hentges, .433, 5.67
J.A. Happ, .384, 5.79
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .360, 5.52
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Lance Lynn, .222, 2.43
Zac Gallen, .230, 3.64
Luis Patino, .230, 3.33
Pitcher to Build Around
Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, $9,700 — Lynn should be plenty rested for this start, after his last start against the Mariners was suspended and saw him only throw three innings. Tonight, he faces the Tigers for the second time this season, tossing six innings and allowing one run on four hits and six strikeouts for 23.9 DKFP. Lynn is coming off his “worst” month of the season but believe me, that’s not saying much. His .298 wOBA was the highest of the first three months of the season to go with a 3.54 FIP. There isn’t much to worry about here, Lynn should continue to produce once again.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs, $5,100 — Winker has been a bit quiet as of late but has a fantastic matchup on tap against the Cubs and Alec Mills ($6,200). Mills has some of the worst numbers on this slate against lefties with a .420 wOBA, a 5.81 FIP and only a 12.5% K%. Winker has done the majority of his damage at home against righties, boasting a .506 wOBA, a .393 ISO and nine of the 19 home runs he’s hit. Despite averaging only 7.5 DKFP over his last 10 games, I think we see double-digits for the Reds power hitter.
Save Big by Drafting
Trevor Larnach, Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, $3,100 — I really like this game to go over it’s projected total of 10 runs. One of the big reasons why is because I’m looking to target against Brady Singer ($6,500), who has some really poor numbers against lefties. They’ve tagged him for a .345 wOBA, a 4.56 FIP and six of the eight home runs he’s allowed. With Larnach hitting in the heart of the Twins lineup, this feels like a no-brainer if you’re seeking value in your lineup.
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