clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for July 2

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Seattle Mariners v Chicago White Sox Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images

Are you getting ready for the weekend? I am. So let’s set you up for a successful start and put some extra green in your pocket.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.


DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Lance McCullers Jr., $9,200, Houston Astros (-186) vs. Cleveland Indians (+160) — The Astros are one again road favorites tonight, a scenario they’ve gone 16-14 in this season. McCullers has looked good since returning to the rotation midway through June, tossing 15 2/3 innings allowing five runs on 10 hits with 14 strikeouts. In those starts, he posted a .261 wOBA, with a 3.93 FIP and only a 23.8% hard-hit rate allowed. The Indians have not been a great home offense with just a .306 wOBA, a .167 ISO and an 88 wRC+.

From a daily fantasy standpoint, I can’t say I’m that crazy about targeting McCullers. The Indians aren’t a team you target to rack up strikeouts, as they have just a 22.7% K% against righties, which ranks them 21st in the league. While McCullers has been good in his return, he’s been struggling with his command a bit, walking nine in his three starts since returning. I do like the Astros to win this game against Sam Hentges ($5,800), who has a 5.26 FIP through 35 23 innings in the majors this season. When the Indians have been home underdogs this season, they’ve gone 5-7.

Other notable favorite: Griffin Canning ($7,600; -177) vs. Baltimore Orioles


Highest Projected Total

St. Louis Cardinals (-113; 6.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (-105; 6.5 runs) 12.5 runs — Sounds like we’re expecting some offense in Coors tonight, eh? A ridiculous 12.5 projected run total is set for this game with BOTH teams projected at 6.5 runs. Johan Oviedo ($5,400) and Chi Chi Gonzalez ($4,900) will be taking the hill tonight - which is essentially all you need to know why this total is so high (no pun intended). Let’s just quickly go through some stats on both pitchers and you can make your decision from there.

Oviedo hasn’t pitched a ton of innings this season but has a .409 wOBA and a 7.07 FIP through 14 1/3 innings on the road. Lefties have hit him the hardest, tagging him with a. .371 wOBA, a 5.80 FIP and only a 12.0% K%.

Gonzalez is a contact pitcher who has only a 5.3 K/9 through 69 2/3 innings this season. HIs 5.17 FIP is very close to his 5.81 ERA, indicating his struggles are warranted. He’s pitched better at Coors than on the road, as he’s only given up two of his 12 home runs here. He does have a 3.89 FIP at Coors, which is pretty impressive but his numbers have been going up lately. In the month of June alone, Gonzalez was hit for 22 runs on 35 hits in just 25 2/3 innings, giving him a 5.81 FIP that month.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Bat Flip [$100K to 1st


Weather Notes

We have rain in the forecast for a few games. None of them seem as if they’re in real danger of being postponed but as always, take a look closer to first pitch.

St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies
New York Mets at New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays


Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Alec Mills, .420, 5.81
Keegan Akin, .398, 3.93
Alek Manoah, .381, 6.83

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jordan Montgomery, .194, 2.59
Max Scherzer, .220, 2.36
Taijuan Walker, .230, 2.92


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters


Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Sam Hentges, .433, 5.67
J.A. Happ, .384, 5.79
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .360, 5.52

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Lance Lynn, .222, 2.43
Zac Gallen, .230, 3.64
Luis Patino, .230, 3.33


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, $9,700 — Lynn should be plenty rested for this start, after his last start against the Mariners was suspended and saw him only throw three innings. Tonight, he faces the Tigers for the second time this season, tossing six innings and allowing one run on four hits and six strikeouts for 23.9 DKFP. Lynn is coming off his “worst” month of the season but believe me, that’s not saying much. His .298 wOBA was the highest of the first three months of the season to go with a 3.54 FIP. There isn’t much to worry about here, Lynn should continue to produce once again.


Stud Hitter to Pay For

Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs, $5,100 — Winker has been a bit quiet as of late but has a fantastic matchup on tap against the Cubs and Alec Mills ($6,200). Mills has some of the worst numbers on this slate against lefties with a .420 wOBA, a 5.81 FIP and only a 12.5% K%. Winker has done the majority of his damage at home against righties, boasting a .506 wOBA, a .393 ISO and nine of the 19 home runs he’s hit. Despite averaging only 7.5 DKFP over his last 10 games, I think we see double-digits for the Reds power hitter.


Save Big by Drafting

Trevor Larnach, Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, $3,100 — I really like this game to go over it’s projected total of 10 runs. One of the big reasons why is because I’m looking to target against Brady Singer ($6,500), who has some really poor numbers against lefties. They’ve tagged him for a .345 wOBA, a 4.56 FIP and six of the eight home runs he’s allowed. With Larnach hitting in the heart of the Twins lineup, this feels like a no-brainer if you’re seeking value in your lineup.

Refer a friend and get $20 DK Dollars! Head to the DraftKings Playbook Promo page for more details!


For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app.


Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of the applicable MLB entity. All rights reserved.


All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF(IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).

21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.