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This run of brutal weather seems to be on its last legs — looks like the East Coast games will be the only ones impacted. That leaves us with plenty of options on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s action.
If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Lance Lynn over 6.5 strikeouts -115
Speaking of bad weather, Lynn was only able to go three innings last time out because of it. He was on pace for another high strikeout total, but he had to settle for four. Probably frustrating in the moment, but now he’s well-rested against a Tigers lineup that’s surprisingly 11th in OPS against right-handers over the last two weeks and not striking out as much as most against those pitchers of late.
Lynn squared off vs. the Tigers on June 3 and came up one strikeout short of hitting the over on Friday’s prop, but then he went out and struck out nine against a Toronto lineup that was very difficult for righties to K throughout all of June. The only team that was tougher for right-handers to punch out in June was Houston, who Lynn logged six strikeouts against in a painful June 19 start.
Lastly, Detroit has been one of the worst teams at making contact on pitches out of the zone over the last two weeks, and the Tigers have one of the 10 worst swinging-strike rates during that same time frame.
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Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Twins over 4.5 runs -135
Even though the Twins just got swept by the White Sox, they still managed to score five-plus runs in two of three games. They also went 2-for-3 on Friday’s run total in their series vs. Cleveland, after scoring seven and 10 runs in their quick two-game set vs. Cincinnati.
During this stretch, the Twins have scored three runs off both Lucas Giolito and Tyler Mahle. They also took Dylan Cease deep twice. So, Minnesota has had success against some quality righties — each of which is better than Brady Singer.
The Kansas City righty was better in June than he was in May, but he still posted a 4.34 ERA. He only gave up two runs over 5 2/3 when he saw the Twins on June 6, but that was during a phase where they weren’t seeing righties well. Over the last two weeks — the same span in which they’ve seen Giolito, Cease and Mahle — the Twins rank fifth in both OPS and ISO against right-handed pitching.
Kansas City’s bullpen has also been one of the absolute worst in baseball over the last two weeks, posting a 6.71 ERA, 5.87 FIP, 1.9 HR/9 and 1.69 WHIP.
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Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Kyle Gibson over 5.5 strikeouts -105
Only the Cubs struck out more against right-handed pitching over the month of June than the Mariners. Now, Seattle isn’t hitting righties as poorly as the Cubs over the last two weeks, but Gibson is still facing a team that’s middle of the pack in terms of OPS and ISO against right-handed pitching over the last couple weeks. A six-seven innings are in reach for Gibson.
The Mariners are hitting righties a bit better than the Kansas City lineup Gibson just diced up, but the Royals are striking out much less frequently against right-handers than the Mariners. The Royals have one of the 10 best plate appearances per strikeout rates against righties over the last two weeks, yet Gibson punched out 10 against them in his latest start.
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