Tuesday, as always, features a massive slate. Tonight is no different with 13 games on the scheduled starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Nice.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Shane McClanahan, $8,600, Tampa Bay Rays (-210) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+175) — Here we go again. The Rays are the biggest favorites once again tonight, fresh off a 6-1 loss against the Orioles last night. The Rays, who were -250 favorites, never had the lead at any point in that game, quickly going down 2-0 in the first. They’d score all of one run in that game and gave whomever took the Orioles on the moneyline a solid underdog cash at +200. So now again, another lefty, which is the preferred split for the Orioles, is a big favorite.
I’m not looking to back the Rays here again. Aside from the horrible -210 line, this Orioles team is simply good against lefties. After last night, they have a .324 wOBA, a .160 ISO and a 106 wRC+ against them. When it comes to runs scored, the O’s are fifth (!) in the league with 142. McClanahan has been fine when taking the hill but not enough where I want to back him as a -210 favorite. The Orioles moneyline 1H is quite enticing at +155 and I’ll likely be throwing a sprinkle on that one. This is not a game I’ll be looking to actively bet but for the plus money, that would be the play I’m looking toward.
Highest Projected Total
Boston Red Sox (+115; 5.5 runs) at Toronto Blue Jays (-135; 5.5 runs) 11.5 runs — The Red Sox hit the over on the game total of 10.5 last night, by themselves in the second inning. It was quite the feat by them and the Blue Jays burned through their bullpen, as starter Ross Stripling lasted just a 1⁄3 of an inning. Even with last night’s barrage of offense, the Red Sox and Blue Jays still struggle to hit the over going 44-48-3 and 42-46-3 respectively.
Tonight could be another day to hit the over, however. Garrett Richards ($7,500) and Tom Hatch ($4,000) will be taking the hill tonight. Richards has been a gas can for almost two months now and has openly admitted he struggles without the sticky stuff. The Blue Jays have already torched him for 10 runs on 22 hits and 12 walks through 16 2/3 innings this season. The over has been hitting at a rapid pace when Richards takes the mound this season and has gone 7-1 since the beginning of June. As for Hatch, he’ll be making his first start in 2021 in the majors after opening in Triple-A. He pitched 17 games last season with 16 coming out of the bullpen. He had an impressive 2.73 ERA but a 4.14 FIP. His command can be an issue and doesn’t have overpowering strikeout abilities. He’s the biggest wildcard of this game and has be torn on taking the over or not. I would likely lean on the Blue Jays team total over of 5.5 at -125.
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays- Rain is in the forecast in Buffalo and the placement of these storms will be key. If they end up over the stadium, very little chance they play. If they can avoid it, should be no issue at all. Keep an eye on his one.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Bailey Ober, .449, 7.35
Trevor Williams, .407, 5.35
Johan Oviedo, .361, 5.65
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Anderson, .207, 3.02
Marco Gonzales, .231, 4.14
Wade Miley, .235, 2.34
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Marco Gonzales, .450, 7.14
Garrett Richards .387, 4.77
Tarik Skubal, .347, 5.55
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Muller, .235, 3.09
German Marquez, .244, 3.02
John Means, .246, 4.26
Pitcher to Build Around
German Marquez, Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners, $8,100 — This pricing is kind of wild, honestly. Like, I get it, it’s a pitcher at Coors Field, but what do you do when said pitcher absolutely dominates at Coors Field? That’s been the case with Marquez (and most of the Rockies rotation if we’re being honest). Through 70 2/3 innings, Marquez has posted a ridiculous .258 wOBA and a 3.09 FIP at home. That’s not supposed to happen but it has been. Tonight he faces the Mariners, who bring strikeout upside and will be down the DH. Against righties, the Mariners have a 25.5% K%, which is the sixth highest mark in the league. Marquez has struck out at least five in four of his last five starts, including 20 over his last 13 innings. This salary is just too low.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees, $5,000 — It’s not often that I go out of my way to pay up for a catcher but I really like the matchup for Realmuto tonight. They’ll be on the road against the Yankees and facing Domingo German ($7,000), who has put up some really poor numbers against righties. Specifically at home, they’ve tagged him for a .376 wOBA, a 7.28 FIP and seven of the 16 home runs he’s allowed. Realmuto has in the midst of a really good month of July with a .399 wOBA, a .213 ISO and a 151 wRC+.
Save Big by Drafting
Austin Hays, Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, $2,500 — Give me the dirt cheap Hays against McClanahan. Hays splits favor facing lefties by a wide margin, as he has a .407 wOBA with a .229 ISO and a 161 wRC+. For reference, against righties he has just a .280 wOBA, a .161 ISO and a 76 wRC+. We say him bat leadoff last night against the lefty and he could get that once again tonight. Worse case scenario, he would slot into his normal spot, batting second. This is simply too cheap for someone with the splits that he has.
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