Follow along on Twitter (@julianedlow) for any updates — things can always change with potential lineup moves leading up to tipoff. Here’s what jumps out to me for Game 6 of the NBA Finals on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
After seeing Game 5 skyrocket over the total by about 20 points, I think we’re getting some good value here on an under in a situation that calls for the game to be slowed down. A total of 222 is pretty high for a game of this magnitude. After a Game 3 push on the total and an easy under in Game 4, some unsustainable hot shooting in Game 5 feels like an outlier.
Now these teams transition to Milwaukee in a game that just has the feel of a tight one. The Bucks suddenly have a lot of pressure on their shoulders to close this out at home, which should hurt their scattered offense much more than their defense — which has been efficient the majority of the postseason. Meanwhile, a Suns team that’s suddenly been ravaged by turnovers in key moments, has to do a better job making sure it maximizes each possession in a win-or-go-home game.
This is more of a situational handicap than going behind the numbers, but pace of play and defensive metrics would also suggest this total is a bit lofty due to the high scoring last game. Neither team has been in this situation before, and I expect some nerves to show late in the game. If this one gets off to a fast start, I think the live under will be worth a look, as well.
Despite going with the game under, I think Booker continues his hot streak in this spot. The Suns just don’t have many more options to carry their offense. While Phoenix has lost both of Booker’s 40-point performances over the last two, both contests have come down to turnovers on crucial possessions with the game on the line. I don’t think they need to go away from him and look for any balance with everything on the line in Game 6.
Booker’s had a massive 43% usage rate over the last two games that he’s gone for 40-plus points, playing 38 and 42 minutes in those contests, respectively. This could be the type of game Booker barely comes off the floor. Look for him to go 45-plus minutes in Game 6. Booker also seems to have the type of mindset that suggests he won’t back down in this moment.
A ton of juice here, but we’ve seen this prop cash in all five NBA Finals games, and it’s become less of a sweat as the games go on. Maybe Connaughton’s due for some regression here, but we’ve seen his role really increase this series, playing 30-plus minutes over the last four. Of Connaughton’s 36 field goal attempts in this series, a whopping 30 have come from downtown. He’s shooting exactly 50%, connecting on 15-of-30. Just riding the hot hand here, and backing a role player at home is generally more comfortable.
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