Tuesday’s MLB slate is a large one, with 15 games to choose from. That includes 13 games scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET or later, which is what this piece will focus on.
Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
These two teams exploded yesterday offensively, combining for 26 runs over 11 innings. There are reasons to believe that they can go off again on Tuesday.
For starters, the Mets’ offense is playing as well as they have all season. Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, and Dominic Smith all homered yesterday, and all three players have shown signs of life recently. Conforto in particular has been either hurt or injured all season, so getting him back to his usual self would be a huge boost for their offense. J.D. Davis is also back in the lineup, which should be particularly helpful against Reds left-hander Wade Miley. The Mets’ offense can be a bit lefty-heavy, but Davis gives them another legitimate threat from the right side. He boasts a 189 wRC+ against southpaws so far this season.
On the other side, the Reds should have no problems piling up runs in this matchup. They’re taking on Robert Stock, who has pitched to a 7.88 ERA over eight innings at the big league level this season. Once they get past Stock, they will get to face an extremely overworked Mets bullpen. They had to pitch more than eight innings on Sunday and followed that up with 7 1/3 innings yesterday. A tired bullpen doesn’t bode well in Cincinnati, which has historically been one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league.
The Marlins have the clear pitching edge in this matchup, but it may not be as large as most people think. Trevor Rogers has been fantastic for the Marlins so far this season, but his results have waned a bit recently. He’s posted a 4.00 ERA over two starts in July, and his ERA has gotten progressively worse over each month this season.
The Nationals will send Paolo Espino to the mound, and he’s held his own this season. He’s pitched to a 3.33 ERA, including a 3.22 ERA over 22 1/3 innings as a starter. No one is ever going to confuse Espino with a top prospect, but he has the ability to keep opposing offenses at bay.
Speaking of offenses, that’s where these two teams really differ. The Nationals boast two bonafide stars in Juan Soto and Trea Turner, and they rank fourth in the league in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers. Conversely, the Marlins rank just 20th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and they’re playing without two of their best hitters at the moment. Garrett Cooper ranks first on the team in wRC+ this season, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks fifth. Both players are on the IL, so it could be tough sledding for the Marlins’ offense moving forward.
The Diamondbacks are favored on Tuesday. You read that correctly. The Diamondbacks – who own a paltry 28-68 record this season – are favored in a professional baseball game.
Don’t get me wrong, the Pirates aren’t very good either, but I will gladly back them at better than even money vs. the Diamondbacks.
The Pirates have shown some signs of life recently, racking up some big wins vs. the Mets in their first two games following the All-Star break. They have a legit star in Bryan Reynolds, and John Nogowski has also given the team some quality at bats since losing Colin Moran.
They’re taking on right-hander Taylor Widener, who has pitched to a 2.54 ERA over six starts with the Diamondbacks this season. That said, his xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all over five, which suggests he’s been extremely lucky to start the year. That makes him a prime regression candidate, and his ERA is the big reason why the Diamondbacks are favored tonight. Let’s take advantage.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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