Thursday brings yet another eight-game slate to us, beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET. Despite this being a medium sized slate, the pitching options for this one is quite good. Let’s discuss.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Walker Buehler, $10,500, Los Angeles Dodgers (-170) vs. San Francisco Giants (+150) — We don’t have an overwhelming favorite on this slate is everyone (at least as of this morning) is no more than a -170 favorite. That favorite is Buehler going against the Giants, who snuck out a victory over the Dodgers last night after scoring three runs in the ninth. Buehler has dominated the Giants through 19 2⁄3 innings thus far, allowing just two earned runs (four total) on 12 hits and striking out 15. Through those starts, he’s produced a .235 wOBA with a 3.07 FIP. The Giants are a very good hitting club against righties with a .332 wOBA, a .198 ISO and a 110 wRC+ but for whatever reason, they haven’t been able to figure out Buehler. It’s hard not backing Buehler in this spot in which he’s done so well on three separate occasions already. The Dodgers have performed very well when Buehler has taken the mound as well, going 13-6 on the moneyline in his starts.
Highest Projected Total
Los Angeles Angels (+120; 4.5 runs) at Minnesota Twins (-140; 4.5 runs) 9.5 runs — The Angels and Twins begin a series tonight while also having the highest projected total at 9.5 runs. Nothing has really been going right for either team but hey, if you bet all the over on their games, you usually win! These are the top two teams in the league at hitting the over on the game total, with the Twins being the best at 58-34-4 (63%) and the Angels in second at 55-38-1 (59.1%). With the pitching matchup we have tonight, I’m thinking another over is in store for these teams.
Andrew Heaney ($6,900) and Kenta Maeda ($9,000) will be taking the mound for their respective clubs in this game. The clear advantage lies with the Twins against Heaney, who has allowed at least three runs in five straight starts. Over that span he has a 5.05 FIP with a .393 wOBA and six home runs allowed through 23 1/3 innings. As is always the case, the Twins have some of the best numbers in the league against lefties with a .326 wOBA, a .190 ISO and a 106 wRC+. I would love to take the over on their team total at the very least, especially if you think we get the good version of Maeda, who has appeared and disappeared numerous times this season.
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Weather Notes
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Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Adbert Alzolay, .393, 7.87
Cal Quantrill, .346, 4.04
Kenta Maeda, .332, 4.21
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jordan Montgomery, .219, 2.84
Blake Snell, .223, 1.59
Kwang-hyun Kim, .227, 2.92
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Moore, .410, 6.13
Blake Snell, .385, 5.69
Andrew Heaney, .337, 4.38
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Anthony DeSclafani, .227, 3.53
Adbert Alzolay, .230, 2.61
Walker Buehler, .234, 3.38
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, $9,600 — Look, the Mariners are going to win the AL West but that doesn’t mean they will win every single game along the way. I think this is a great spot for Manaea, who completely shut down this offense once already. In that prior start, he tossed nine shutout innings, allowing just four hits with eight strikeouts and 41.7 DKFP. The Mariners are a very strikeout prone team with the second-highest K% against lefties at 26.6%. They do hit for power, which is a bit of a concern with a .175 ISO but everything else points to a great spot for the A’s pitcher.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees, $5,300 — Bogaerts doesn’t just smash against lefties, he smashes against them at Fenway Park. He faces Jordan Montgomery ($7,400), who has given up exactly three runs in four straight starts, two of which have come against this Red Sox team. Bogaerts enters this game with a .470 wOBA with a .328 ISO and a 199 wRC+ against lefties at Fenway Park. While he’s not hitting consistently in the month of July, six of his 11 hits this month have gone for extra bases.
Save Big by Drafting
Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs, $3,100 — If you noticed above, Adbert Alzolay ($8,400) has been downright putrid against lefties. If you’re a lefty in the Cardinals lineup, you want to be facing Alzolay tonight. This is where I find the appeal for Carlson. He’s a switch-hitter who has been massively inconsistent but this matchup is not one I want to miss. Alzolay has a .393 wOBA and a 7.87 (!) FIP. While Carlson doesn’t have great overall numbers, since the All-Star break, he’s averaging 8.0 DKFP.
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