It’s Thursday, and that not only means the weekend is around the corner, it means we’ve got plenty of baseball on the docket. I’ve taken a look at the entire card and I think I’ve picked out three winners.
Here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals ML (-125)
We have one of my favorite spots to bet here, with a strikeout-reliant pitcher who gives up a hefty amount of hard contact, going against a high-contact offense. Often times, the team which enters making contact — but just not enough quality contact — finds an easier time driving the ball, and I do believe the Cardinals should be the beneficiaries on Thursday.
St. Louis ranks fourth in contact rate over the last two weeks, and down in the bottom seven in strikeout rate. It will have the pleasure of facing Adbert Alzolay, who has flashed some brilliant stuff this year, but on the whole, hasn’t fared too well in the quality contact department with a 43.1% hard-hit rate. He shouldn’t be able to rely on the whiffs he needs to get himself out of trouble.
On the other hand, the Cubs’ offense continues to hurt and it now has to face another effective pitcher in Kwang Hyun Kim. The lefty’s proven to be a legitimate threat to teams which make hard contact, inducing the soft stuff. The Cubs aren’t making very much contact at all of late, and they won’t find much joy in facing a pitcher who’s given up just nine homers in 24 career outings.
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San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Giants ML (+150)
This reasoning may be rather academic, but I think it should be sound. The Giants’ offense was already trending in the right direction before it got Buster Posey back, who has proven in just two games to be a vital player to San Francisco. Now, this team gets to hit Walker Buehler, who has seen a dip in his spin rates since the league’s announced crackdown on foreign substances. On top of what should be a super night offensively, the Giants are throwing the talented Anthony DeSclafani, who has been excellent this season.
Buehler was having a weird year even before the “Sticky Stuff” era came to a close, but his stuff has looked just a bit more hittable since then. He’s recovered after a couple of mediocre outings (for his standards), but hasn’t faced much competition yet this month.
It’s true that Buehler did just shut down the Giants, but his outings all year long against San Francisco have teetered the line between good and potentially bad. He’s had some issues with walks and homers, and in the wrong situation, could have had a clunker on his hands in May.
The bottom line here is that while Buehler should yield a few runs, and a guy like DeSclafani, who has been superb at limiting walks, should be a tough matchup for a team which thrives on free passes. The Giants are the value once again.
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Tampa Bay +73 No Brainer
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Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Under 7.5 (-105)
Do I trust the Mariners against a left-handed pitcher, a spot where they’ve struggled mightily this year? No, I do not. Do I trust the A’s, a team which is 22nd in wRC+ over the last two weeks, against the red-hot Chris Flexen? No, I do not.
The conditions should be ripe here for a pitcher’s duel. Manaea hasn’t been super of late, but a date with the Mariners, who have just a .680 OPS against lefties, should be just what he needs to get going. On the other hand, Flexen has solid peripherals to back up his recent hot streak, and with a walk rate bordering on the elite at 5%, he should be able to limit the damage against an A’s team that is still trying to find its groove.
I’m all in on this under, trusting both pitchers to give us six or more solid innings against two tough offenses to back.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.