Oh hey, hello! It’s Friday and we’re about to embark on the weekend, obviously. Before we do that though, how about we make some extra money? Yeah? Good.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
David Price, $6,300, Los Angeles Dodgers (-290) vs. Colorado Rockies (+230) — This is one of the bigger lines I’ve seen all season long and it includes a starting pitcher that is only $6,300 if you’re playing daily fantasy. Price continues to be stretched out in the Dodgers rotation and has made two straight starts, one which was against this Rockies team. In those games he’s gone a total of seven innings allowing one run on six hits and seven strikeouts. The advanced numbers looked good as well with a 1.91 and a 3.16 FIP in those seven innings. Now he gets the Rockies at Dodger Stadium with the hope that he can go at least five innings. The Rockies have been downright horrific on the road against lefties with a .272 wOBA, a .128 ISO and a 67 wRC+. So bad, folks. So bad.
No one is excited to bet on a -290 line, if we’re being honest. With that said, the Dodgers are 31-17 (64.6%) on the moneyline as home favorites this season. If you want to get a better number, I don’t hate taking them on the run line at -1.5 at -140. As home favorites, they’re 25-23 (52.1%), which is the fourth-best record in the league. For reference, the top three ahead of them are the Diamondback (10-5), Giants (20-14) and White Sox (27-19). I would be much more comfortable taking this bet over the moneyline. On the season, the Dodgers are 7-3 on the run line against the Rockies. My goodness.
Highest Projected Total
Detroit Tigers (+100; 4.5 runs) at Kansas City Royals (-120; 5.5 runs) 10.5 runs — The highest projected total belongs to the Tigers and Royals. The Royals have been a better team hitting the over with an overall 45-41-8 (52.3%) record while the Tigers are at 45-48-5 (48.4%). The Tigers are riding an amazing seven game winning streak and are averaging six runs per game in that span. Now they’ll take on Kris Bubic ($5,000), who hasn’t exactly been pitching well lately.
Over the past month, Bubic has a .399 wOBA, a 6.80 FIP and a 2.1 HR/9. He’s pitched well against the Tigers on two separate occasions but hasn’t seen them since the middle of May. He’s never been a strikeout pitcher to begin with but the walks have risen as well, which has helped contribute to his recent struggles. The Tigers are free swingers and have one of the lowest BB% in the league against righties but to their credit, they’ve been putting the ball in play. Since coming out of the All-Star break they have a team .368 wOBA, a .230 ISO and only a 16.8% K%, which is impressive for a team that is consistently at the top in K%. I don’t know if I trust these teams to combine to score at least 11 runs, but I would feel much better about the Tigers scoring five against this Royals pitching staff.
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Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
David Price, .402, 4.86
Kris Bubic, .383, 6.40
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .367 4.96
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Yusei Kikuchi, .166, 2.96
Freddy Peralta, .248, 4.04
Zack Wheeler, .251, 2.27
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
J.A. Happ, .393, 5.78
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .377, 5.53
Patrick Corbin, .373, 5.79
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Wily Peralta, .201, 3.16
Freddy Peralta, .217, 2.31
Joe Musgrove, .227, 2.83
Pitcher to Build Around
Lucas Gioltio, Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, $9,600 — The strikeout upside in this start for Gioltio immediately grabbed my attention. He’s coming off a start against the Astros, who are one of the toughest teams in the league to strikeout, in which he fanned eight through a one-run, nine inning game. Overall, Giolito has a 10.5 K/9 a 3.90 FIP and a .313 wOBA on the road. It’s always worth giving a slight additional bump when these teams travel to the National League, as they’ll have the benefit of facing the opposing pitcher as well. For reference, Freddy Peralta has a 48.4% K% on the season in 31 plate appearances. As for the club as a whole, the Brew Crew has the third-highest K% against righties at 25.6% and just an 88 wRC+, which ranks 23rd.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Juan Soto, Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles, $5,600 — You should be excited about this spot as a whole for the Nationals, as they have the luxury of facing Jorge Lopez ($6,000). His numbers against lefties are tough to stomach, with a .360 wOBA, a 5.03 FIP and six of the 14 home runs he’s allowed. He’ll be tasked with trying to get out Soto, who has been crushing righties on the road to the tune of a .423 wOBA, a .207 ISO and a 165 wRC+. Lopez doesn’t go deep into games either, so that means this Nationals team will see plenty of the Orioles bullpen as well.
Save Big by Drafting
Justin Upton, Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins $3,300 — Speaking of luxury matchups, the Angels are the next in line to tee off against J.A. Happ ($6,100). This is someone who over his last 10 starts has given up at least a home run in nine of them and two or more in five. When it comes to runs allowed, Happ has allowed at least four in six of his last 10 starts, including seven in his last time out against the Tigers. Upton has always been a threat against lefties and has a .415 wOBA with a .328 ISO and a 167 wRC+ against them this season. Hitting near the top of that Angels lineup, this is a no-brainer at $3,300.
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