Saturday features a sizable MLB slate, with all 30 teams in action. That includes a 10-game main slate starting at 7:10 p.m., which is what this piece will focus on.
Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers:
Brewers ML (-130)
This game features one of the best pitching matchups on the slate. The White Sox will send Carlos Rodón to the mound, who has been fantastic this season. He owns a 2.14 ERA and a 13.03 K/9, which puts him squarely in the AL Cy Young award conversation.
As good as Rodón has been, Corbin Burnes has been even better. He’ll get the ball for the Brewers, and his traditional metrics are in line with Rodon’s. He’s pitched to a 2.16 ERA and a 13.13 K/9, but his advanced metrics blow Rodon’s out of the water. He owns a 1.31 FIP, which is the second-best mark among pitchers with at least 80 innings this season. That’s mostly due to his otherworldly ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. He’s allowed just 0.28 homers per nine innings this season after allowing 0.30 homers per nine innings in 2020.
This is probably the lowest price tag we’ll get with Burnes for the rest of the year, so I’m happy to back him on Saturday.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Mets:
Mets ML (+100)
The Mets have been in a bit of a tailspin recently, but they’ve started to turn things around. They’ve gotten back-to-back strong pitching performances from Marcus Stroman and Tylor Megill, and they will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker on Saturday. Walker has been excellent for the Mets so far this season, earning his first All-Star bid thanks to a 2.99 ERA.
He’ll have his work cut out for him vs. a potent Blue Jays lineup, but the Mets’ offense should give him some runs to work with. Hyun-Jin Ryu is a formidable opponent, but I’m not sure if any pitcher in the world can slow down Pete Alonso at the moment. He is dialed in at the plate since winning the Home Run Derby, and he’s launched four homers in 30 at-bats over the second half of the season. He owns a 229 wRC+ over that time frame, so don’t be surprised if Alonso goes yard again on Saturday.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants:
Under 8 runs (-120)
The under is shaping up to be a preferred target for the sharps on Saturday. Just 29% of the over/under bets have sided with the under in this contest, but those bets have accounted for 75% of the dollars. That’s a massive discrepancy, which suggests that the high-dollar wagers are landing on the under.
It’s easy to see what they like about the under. Kevin Gausman will take the mound, and he has been fantastic during his tenure in San Francisco. He owns a ridiculous 1.84 ERA this season, and his 2.82 FIP suggests he’s been nearly as good as advertised.
Wil Crowe is the bigger question mark, but he has started to show signs of life. He allowed just two earned runs in his final two starts before the All-Star break, but the Mets got to him for four earned runs in his only start in the second half. Still, I think he can limit the Giants to two or three runs before handing the ball to the bullpen, which puts us on track for an under.
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