Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for White Sox vs. Brewers Showdown on July 25

Sunday’s Showdown matchup could be a preview of the 2021 World Series. Both teams are starting elite pitchers and both feature elite bullpens. The White Sox offense has the second-highest wRC+, and while the Brewers got off to a slow start this season, they have the sixth-highest wRC+ over the last 30 days. Will this be a pitching slate or a hitting slate?

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Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Captain’s Picks

Brandon Woodruff ($16,200 CP) — Choosing between Woodruff and Lance Lynn has got to be one of the hardest Showdown slate decisions this season. Both have been phenomenal and their statistical differences are minimal. A strong argument can be made either way, but Woodruff has the slight edge in some important categories. Woodruff separates from Lynn with an 18% called strike rate, 6% BB rate and a 67% first pitch strike rate. There overall strikeout rates are similar and their opponents strike out at similar clips, but this small advantage in underlying metrics could result in more strikeouts for Woodruff, making him the better captain option. Also, Woodruff is less likely to surrender runs with a much lower fly ball rate (31% vs. 44%), and his 3.5 WAR is significantly higher than Lynn’s 2.5 WAR.

Gavin Sheets ($10,500 CP) — If rostering elite pitchers seems obvious, then an easy way to differentiate from the public is to place a hitter in the captain’s spot. This is a hitter’s park and Lance Lynn has surrendered a home run in each of his last two starts. His xFIP has been north of four in each of his last three starts and his strikeout rate was 14.8% in his last start. Since getting called up on June 29, the left-handed White Sox prospect (No. 9) has a .443 wOBA, .420 ISO and a 187 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Sunday Night Showdown [$25K to 1st] (CWS vs MIL)

Value Plays

Lance Lynn ($10,600) — This is not a value play from the perspective of price, but it could be considered a value play in regards to points per dollar. That’s probably a semantic stretch, but playing Woodruff and Lynn seems like the thing to do. Lynn has to be analyzed somewhere, so he’s sliding into the value category. Woodruff has the edge in most statistical categories, but results mean more than advanced metrics. Lynn has more wins and a lower ERA despite having to face a designated hitter every time he pitches. A 44% fly ball rate should not work for a pitcher that tosses half of his games in a hitter’s park, but Lynn has limited hard contact (26%) and he strands runners at a higher rate than Woodruff (87% LOB). The Brewers are hitting right now, but this is the same team that did not hit for the first two months. Even with the turn around, Milwaukee's lineup terrifies no one. Since the beginning of June, Milwaukee has been above average against right-handed pitching (105 wRC+), but they still frequently strike out (24.2%) and should not be too much of a challenge for an elite pitcher.

Zack Collins ($6,200) — If there is one chink in Lance Lynn’s armor, it’s that he allows a lot of fly balls (44%). He’s gotten away with it at hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field (Chicago), so he can get away with it at American Family Field (Milwaukee). The likelihood of getting a home run is low, so it makes sense to pay less for a rare outcome. Lynn has a 4.78 xFIP against left-handed batters due to his high walk rate (11%). It’s possible that Lynn falls behind in the count to Collins and the lefty takes advantage (.356 wOBA and a a .178 ISO vs. right-handed pitching).

Fades

Tim Anderson ($15,600 CP; $10,400) — If this game is all about pitching, then paying up for a hitter is impossible. If DFS players do decide to spend money on a bat, then it should be to chase a home run. Woodruff and Lynn will not make many mistakes, and neither will their elite bullpens. If Anderson is fortunate enough to get a mistake pitch, the odds of him depositing that mistake over the wall are low. Anderson has a .154 ISO against right-handed pitching and Woodruff is allowing a .064 ISO to right-handed batters. If Anderson does not strike out, then he’ll likely softly ground out against Woodruff (45% ground ball rate and a 27% hard contact rate vs. RHB).

The Outcome

Something has got to give. When good pitching faces good hitting, typically good pitching wins. That should be the case tonight. Sunday night games have regularly been pitching duels this season, even when inferior pitchers have faced decent offenses. The trend of great pitching will continue, but the Brewers bullpen will let this one slide away.

Final Score: White Sox 3, Brewers 2

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Sunday Night Showdown [$25K to 1st] (CWS vs MIL)

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