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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for July 26

Steve Buchanan breaks down Monday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

As the trade deadline looms in the near future, the MLB season continues to roll as most teams cross over the 100th game played threshold. Let’s take a look at what we have going on tonight on a small seven-game slate.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Luis Garcia, $10,400, Houston Astros (-180) at Seattle Mariners (+155) — Garcia and the Astros are the biggest favorites on this Monday slate as they visit the Mariners, who just took three out of four against the Athletics. Garcia has only faced this club once this season and tossed five strong innings allowing just one run on three hits and striking out six for 19.5 DKFP. The Mariners are a very strikeout prone team and it’s evident by the 25.5% K%, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. Coming up through the minors, Garcia has always sported some very high strikeout numbers and currently has a 10.3 K/9 in 91 13 innings this season.

The Mariners continue to fight for supremacy in the AL West and remain seven back after the series with the Athletics. While the Mariners offensive numbers as a whole aren’t overly impressive, they continue to churn out timely hits, which is a big reason why they had so much success over the weekend. It will be curious to watch what they do over this next week, as rumors have linked them to both Whit Merrifield and Jose Ramirez. As home underdogs this season, the Mariners are 23-12 on the moneyline. As away favorites, the Astros are 20-14, so something will have to give here in this game.

Highest Projected Total

Toronto Blue Jays (+125; 4.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (-145; 5.5 runs) 11 runs — This total has been on the rise, as it’s gone up to 11 runs after sitting at 10.5 this morning. I don’t think we’ll see it go much higher but this is certainly going to the highest projected total of the night. Both of these teams struggle hitting the over and are near the bottom of the league in that category, with the Blue Jays at 44-48-3 and the Red Sox at 45-52-3. The pitching matchup features Tom Hatch ($5,200), making his 2021 MLB debut against Nick Pivetta ($8,700) who has been decimated by the Blue Jays, allowing 15 runs (14 earned) on 24 hits in just 16 2/3 innings.

I’m always iffy about betting the over on two teams that haven’t performed well in that area all season long. The biggest wildcard here is Hatch, who has thrown just 29 13 innings in Triple-A this season and has a 4.46 FIP with an 8.9 K/9 and a 3.6 BB/9. I don’t worry too much about the Blue Jays, who I mentioned has destroyed Pivetta in three starts. In those games, Pivetta has a .429 wOBA, a 6.15 FIP and five of the 15 home runs he’s allowed. Surprisingly, the Blue Jays only have a team total of 4.5 runs, with the over at -140. While it’s a little bit of juice involved, I would happily take it at 4.5, as I have no doubt this will reach 5.5 at some point today.

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Weather Notes

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Hendricks, .368, 5.10
Joe Ross, .347, 5.19
Dallas Keuchel, .342 4.27

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Wade Miley, .221, 2.14
Spencer Howard, .267, 3.24
German Marquez, .296, 3.43

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Spencer Howard, .360, 5.29
Matt Manning, .353, 4.87
Mike Minor, .373, 4.60

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Shohei Ohtani, .243, 2.20
German Marquez, .251, 3.21
Joe Ross, .268, 3.89

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

German Marquez, Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels, $8,400 — I mean, the selection of pitchers for tonight is quite ugly. When Kyle Hendricks ($9,700) with his 6.6 K/9 is the second-most expensive pitcher, that’s an issue. A chalky Marquez burned a lot of the field the last time out, as he scored just 10.1 DKFP against the Mariners despite going six innings. Overall though, it likely was just a blip on the radar as his season numbers are phenomenal. On the road he sports a .295 wOBA, a 3.56 FIP and just a 1.08 HR/9. We don’t have many viable options to choose from, so going back to what will likely be a chalky Marquez again is the way to go.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals, $5,900 — Harper is very expensive but I love his matchup against Ross. Lefties has been a major issue for the Nationals starter, posting a .347 wOBA with a 5.19 FIP and 1.7 HR/9 against them. The majority of the walks he’s thrown also comes against lefties with an 11.2 BB% compared to the 3.9% against righties. Harper has been hitting well since coming out of the All-Star break averaging 10.1 DKFP in nine games with double-digit fantasy points in four of them.

Save Big by Drafting

Robbie Grossman, Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins $3,100 — Grossman is dirt cheap for how well he’s been hitting lately. Since coming back from the All-Star break, Grossman is averaging 8.6 DKFP, which includes three home runs. He’s also done very well against the Twins all season long and owns a .362 wOBA, a .282 ISO and a 130 wRC+ in 46 plate appearances. He faces Michael Pineda ($6,900) who against lefties has a .334 wOBA, a 5.06 FIP and seven of the 11 home runs he’s given up.

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