We’ve got a full 15-game slate on tap for this evening in MLB, as the month of July comes winding to an end. Who should you be trusting at pitcher with so many notable options? Which teams should you be stacking in GPPs and cash games?
Let’s go position-by-position and break it all down.
Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers, $8,200 - I think it’s safe to say that Maeda is back. While the right-hander spent the first three months of 2021 struggling with results and through injury, July has been a completely different story. Maeda has pitched to a 1.68 FIP in his 23.0 innings of work since the calendar flipped, holding opponents to a microscopic .218 wOBA within that span of time. Most importantly, Maeda is starting to rack up swinging strikes again, with a 36.0% strikeout rate in the month. That’s an elite number, especially with the Tigers owning the league’s second-highest strikeout rate for the season (26.3%).
Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, $6,700 - Quietly, Montgomery has put together a pretty nice season. He comes into Tuesday with a 3.58 FIP across 19 starts, averaging just over a strikeout per inning of work (9.03 K/9). His last three starts in particular have been even better, with Montgomery posting a 27.1% strikeout rate and limiting opposing hitters to a .230 wOBA. In short, there should be no concerns about his form this evening. Also, his matchup is pretty enticing. Though their addition of Nelson Cruz ($5,700) is an attempt to combat this trend, the Rays are one of only five teams with a wOBA below .300 when hitting against LHPs. Tampa possesses a 26.9% strikeout rate within the split, as well — the third-highest mark in baseball.
Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers, $4,500 - The last time Garver was active and the Twins faced a left-handed starter, the backstop found himself hitting second in the lineup. If that happens again this evening, it’ll be difficult to ignore him in DFS. Garver’s been a high-upside asset on the rare occasion he’s been available in 2021, registering a .317 ISO and a 147 wRC+ in 149 plate appearances. With Tyler Alexander ($5,000) having surrendered 1.88 home runs per nine to RHBs this season, Garver certainly has a chance to so some damage on Tuesday.
Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, $2,900 - With Garrett Richards ($7,900) on the mound for the Red Sox, no team has a higher implied total than the Blue Jays this evening. That alone makes Kirk an intriguing target at a price tag below $3K. However, it definitely doesn’t hurt that the rookie is 3-for-7 in his two starts since being activated from the IL, raising his OPS to an impressive .829 for the season as a whole. The 22-year-old can hit.
Refer a friend and get $20 DK Dollars! Head to the DraftKings Playbook Promo page for more details!
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, $5,900 - The rationale is pretty easy to follow here. Guerrero is the league’s best hitter when facing a right-hander, as he’s slashing .349/.427/.717 within the split. Conversely, Richards has been destroyed by RHBs all season long, especially at Fenway Park, where the veteran owns a 6.55 ERA so far in 2021. I’m usually not a BvP guy, but it’s not exactly shocking to discover that Guerrero is 6-for-9 off of Richards for his career with four extra-base hits and an insane .801 wOBA.
Note: Nationals 1B Ryan Zimmerman is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Phillies.
Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies , $3,100 - The Nationals lead baseball with a .343 wOBA against left-handed pitching and Zimmerman is a huge reason why. The 36-year-old is generally occupying the clean-up spot in these situations, which makes sense, as he’s generated an .899 OPS within the split so far in 2021. Zimmerman should be licking his chops for tonight’s matchup with Matt Moore ($6,600) , as the former top prospect has allowed 2.48 home runs per nine to righties in 42.0 innings.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, $4,500 - While I fully understand that Chris Flexen ($7,500) is having a very nice campaign, I can’t comprehend Altuve’s price tag on tonight’s slate. The All-Star has spent a majority of the season well above the $5K mark, with Altuve last checking in this inexpensive back in early May. His matchup that day? Gerrit Cole. With Flexen striking out a paltry 16.2% of the RHBs he’s faced so far this season, I can see a world where Altuve pays off this modest salary very quickly.
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, $4,000 - With a bullpen day seeming very likely for the Mets this evening, Albies’ ability to switch-hit should provide some really nice value in a game script with so many variables. Plus, while the 24-year-old had been slumping in the beginning of July, it appears a move to the two-spot in Atlanta’s batting order has provided a spark. The move also makes the likelihood of Albies drawing five plate appearances very likely on Tuesday.
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $5,500 - Ramirez has been hearing his name in trade rumors all week, but if he’s still on Cleveland’s roster by the time first pitch rolls around, he makes for a great DFS asset. The key here is Adam Wainwright ($8,800) and his very particular splits. While the veteran has spent the past half-decade pitching well in St. Louis, it all falls apart on the road, especially when facing LHBs. To wit, the 82 that Wainwright’s faced within the split in 2021 are hitting .342 with a .401 wOBA. Ramirez, an elite batter from the left-hand side, should be able to take advantage.
Brian Anderson, Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles, $3,400 - After a lengthy stay on the IL, Anderson was activated this past Saturday, and it didn’t take him long to reacclimatize himself, as he hit his fourth home run of the season Sunday afternoon. Anderson will likely hit fifth once again for the Marlins this evening, as the team takes on the journeyman Spenser Watkins ($5,600). Would I be terribly surprised if Miami puts up some crooked numbers on a guy with a 5.18 xFIP? Not especially. It doesn’t hurt that this contest is taking place at Camden Yards, either.
Trea Turner, Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, $6,000 - The Nationals are one of a handful of teams with an implied total of over five runs Tuesday night, which makes sense when you consider how much Moore has struggled in a starting role in 2021. In fact, after conceding six earned runs in his last outing, the veteran now sports an ugly 5.95 FIP when starting games for the Phillies. As for Turner, the All-Star has been nearly unstoppable when drawing a left-handed opponent this season. In 109 plate appearances, Turner is slashing .400/.440/.660 with a 191 wRC+. That’s [eye balls emoji], as the kids would say.
Jose Iglesias, Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies, $3,800 - Iglesias has been hitting exceedingly well lately, posting a .333 average and a 133 wRC+ in the month of July. Because of this, the veteran has rewarded with more high-leverage opportunities, hitting fifth in the Angels’ lineup the past few days and even moving as high as third the last time Los Angeles saw a left-handed opponent. With Iglesias hitting .302 within the split for the season, he certainly carries some value in tonight’s matchup with Austin Gomber ($7,100).
Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $4,800 - Another player who has been hearing his name in trade talks, Gallo draws a plus-matchup this evening in the form of the right-handed Taylor Widener ($7,700). Not only does Widener come into Tuesday with an ugly 5.40 xERA, but the 26-year-old is the exact archetype of pitcher that Gallo feasts on. Widener has registered just a 9.9% swinging strike rate in 2021, while for his career as a whole, he’s pitched to a 0.68 GB/FB ratio. As you might expect, that fly ball tendency has led to Widener surrendering 2.04 home runs per nine. Yikes.
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $3,900 - Reynolds has been underpriced all season long, but he stands out tonight due to a matchup with Brett Anderson ($7,200). Not only has Anderson registered a groan-inducing 6.42 xERA so far in 2021, but he’s left-handed, Reynolds’ preferred split. At least, that’s what a .990 OPS and a 165 wRC+ against LHPs would suggest.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.