These days are my favorite days. Every single team is on the slate tonight, beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET. So stop wasting your time reading this pointless intro.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kenta Maeda, $8,200, Minnesota Twins (-210) vs. Detroit Tigers (+170) — The Twins are the only team with moneyline of at least -200 as they take on the Tigers. After snapping off seven straight wins coming out of the All-Star Break, the Tigers are now losers of four in a row coming into this game. They’ll face Maeda for the fourth time this season, a pitcher they haven’t had much success against. Through 16 innings, Maeda has allowed five runs on 12 hits with 21 strikeouts, averaging 15.5 DKFP. When the Twins are favorites, they’ve gone only 29-35 overall and 17-20 as home favorites.
It’s hard to feel good about backing the Twins at such a high number with how poorly they perform as favorites. The 17-20 record (46%) as home favorites is one of the worst marks in the league. Maeda, as shown, has found plenty of success against this team but their bullpen took a potential major blow last night with Taylor Rogers exiting the game with a sprained left middle finger. This is more of a stay away spot for me, although the +170 number for the Tigers is enticing. This is honestly a weird slate for big favorites, as a lot of them don’t jump out at me as ones I’m dying to bet on. With the Twins, it’s a no from me dawg.
Highest Projected Total
Toronto Blue Jays (-135; 5.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (+115; 4.5 runs) 11 runs — When these teams get together, they put up some runs. In 12 games this season, they average 10.8 runs per game, which to my calculations, is a lot. Despite these teams both being near the bottom of the league overall in hitting the over, they’ve gone over the game total in 6 of the 12 matchups. Last night had an over/under of 11 runs and it went under but they combined for nine runs. Tonight is a tough one to project, in my opinion, with Robbie Ray ($10,100) and Garrett Richards ($7,900) taking the mound.
Ray has pitched well all season long but he’s struggled against the Red Sox. In two starts, Ray has thrown 11 inning allowing seven runs on nine hits with 14 strikeouts. The damage has been justified, as his 5.73 ERA is backed up by a 6.43 FIP. Overall though, Ray has been better on the road with a .287 wOBA and a 3.89 FIP. Richards just can’t figure out the Blue Jays at all. This will be the the fifth time he’s faced them this season and let me tell you, he’s not good against them. Through 22 1/3 innings he’s allowed 14 runs on 26 hits and 13 walks. That comes out to a .379 wOBA, a 5.44 FIP and a 39.7% hard-hit rate. At least looking at these numbers, the over would likely be the play here but as mentioned, these two teams simply don’t hit the over often. Tough one to project but my gut tells me this is an over.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox - This game should start out no problem but it’s during the game that could be an issue. We’ll have a better idea of how this could play out later today but for now, I would play this game as normal.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Adbert Alzolay, .405, 8.00
Brad Keller, .366, 4.32
James Kaprielian, .352 5.71
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Anderson, .218, 2.87
Jordan Montgomery, .223, 2.96
Austin Gomber, .240, 3.54
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Moore, .405, 6.57
Garrett Richards, .385, 5.18
Chris Paddack, .382, 4.20
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Suarez, .207, 3.45
James Kaprielian, .227, 2.83
Adbert Alzolay, .229, 2.79
Pitcher to Build Around
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, $9,800 — Morton has not given an inch when he’s faced the Mets this season so why should tonight be any different? In three starts, he’s gone 19 innings allowing just four runs on eight hits with 26 (!) strikeouts. All the advanced numbers back up his dominance, posting a .197 wOBA and a 2.73 FIP. This is an extremely important start not just for Morton but the Braves as well. They need to figure out quickly what their position is for the trade deadline, as they are five games back in the East and eight out of the Wild Card. Morton is on a one-year deal and has been involved in trade rumors for over a week now. With the way he’s pitched against this Mets team, this is a pivotal spot for numerous reasons.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, $4,400 — This is such a great spot to get Winker in the mid-$4K range in an amazing matchup. He’s been quiet for almost two months now but he FINALLY is showing a pulse at the plate. Over his last five games he’s averaging 12.4 DKFP with four doubles and a home run in that span. Now he faces Alzolay, who has HORRIFIC numbers against left-handed bats. Somehow, he sports a .405 wOBA and an 8.00 FIP against them. Those numbers are BY FAR the worst on the slate. Seeing those numbers and Winker finally doing some damage at the plate, I can’t pass it up.
Save Big by Drafting
Note: Nationals 1B Ryan Zimmerman is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Phillies.
Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies , $3,100 — In the year 2021, I didn’t think I’d be writing up Zimmerman for any reason. However, he’s been starting for the Nats lately and should be once again as they face lefty Matt Moore ($6,600). As you’d expect, Moore has been a disaster for the Phillies and has been giving up bombs every start. Zimmermann doesn’t have great overall numbers but he continues to hit lefties extremely well, averaging 8.8 DKFP, a .374 wOBA and a .273 ISO. Moore has allowed eight of the nine home runs he’s allowed to righties to go with a 6.57 FIP.
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