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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Targets, Values for July 28

Pearce Dietrich gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Wednesday’s fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings, which starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Wednesday features an 11-game MLB main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.

Editor’s Note: Tonight’s game between the Nationals and the Phillies has been postponed due to health protocols.


PITCHER

Stud

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs ($10,200) — The Cubs stink! Over the last 30 days, they rank 26th with an 88 wRC+ (.301 wOBA and a .147 ISO). They have been the second-worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitching since the beginning of June (77 wRC+, .285 wOBA and a .177 ISO). The Cubs know that they’re not going to be Cubs much longer, and their indifference is showing. Chicago followed up their come-from-behind victory on Monday by losing 7-4 Tuesday. Javier Báez ($5,800) chose to sit out the game after trash talking the Reds on Monday night, and the rest of the Cubs’ bats remained silent. The sub-.500 Cubs strike out more than any other team against right-handed pitching (26.5% K rate) and Mahle is a strikeout pitcher (29% K rate).

Other Option: Zack Wheeler ($10,300)

Value

Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies ($7,400) — During seasons when the Rockies were good, they still struggled when they left the comfortable hitting environment of Coors Field. With a bad offense this season, they’ve been embarrassing on the road — their 10 road wins is the lowest mark in baseball as is their 61 wRC+, .261 wOBA and .106 ISO. Those numbers are so microscopic that this team may go down as one of the worst road teams in the history of baseball. All of Andrew Heaney’s home run problems vanish in this matchup, and without long ball woes, he’s an ace (28% K rate, 37% chase rate, 67% first pitch strike rate and a 74% contact rate)

Other Option: Jorge López ($5,300)


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CATCHER

Stud

J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals ($4,600) — Patrick Corbin ($6,700) is a stacking target every time he takes the mound (.369 wOBA, .214 ISO, 35% hard contact rate, 1.9 HR/9 and a 16% K rate). Realmuto has a .355 wOBA, .181 ISO and a 122 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

Other Option: Max Stassi ($4,600)

Value

Mike Zunino, Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees ($4,400) — The best days of the week are Friday, Saturday and “Mike Zunino versus a lefty” day. In 68 at-bats against left-handed pitching, Zunino has a .493 wOBA, .471 ISO and a 224 wRC+. He even hits better at home in the pitcher-friendly Trop (.386 wOBA, .341 ISO and a 155 wRC+).

Other Option: Omar Narváez ($3,900)

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Rally Cap [$100K to 1st]


FIRST BASE

Stud

Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves at New York Mets ($5,100) — Tylor Megill ($9,200) is an intriguing prospect with great strike out stuff (27% K rate), but he hasn’t figured out how to retire left-handed batters in the majors. In 11 innings against lefties, he has a 5.09 xFIP, .365 wOBA, .227 ISO, 2.5 HR/9 and a 53% fly ball rate. Freeman has a .410 wOBA, .254 ISO, 157 wRC+ and a 43% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Other Option: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($6,200)

Value

Jesús Aguilar, Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles ($4,200) — “Home Jesús” is not DFS relevant (.290 wOBA, .119 ISO and a 90 wRC+), but “Away Aguilar” is a solid DFS play (.375 wOBA, .271 ISO and a 131 wRC+), especially at a hitter’s park in Baltimore. Jorge López ($5,300) has been decent against right-handed batters (3.95 xFIP), but he’s allowed a .359 wOBA.

Other Option: Ryan Mountcastle ($3,900)


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SECOND BASE

Stud

David Fletcher, Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies ($6,400) — His 25-game hit streak ended July 18, but he’s still hitting. Since the beginning of the streak on June 13, Fletcher has a .406 wOBA and a 162 wRC+. He earned another multi-hit game on Tuesday by collecting three singles and a walk in five plate appearances. He should be able to reach base safely every time against Chi Chi González ($5,500).

Other Option: Max Muncy ($5,300)

Value

Jonathan India, Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs ($4,200) — Since the beginning of June, India has a .406 wOBA and a 153 wRC+. The rookie took another step forward this month — a .428 wOBA and a 167 wRC+ in July. The cherry of top is that he’s an even better hitter outside of Great American Ball Park — .406 away wOBA, and a .461 away wOBA and 191 away wRC+ since June 1. Those numbers may seem strange or flukey, but India is not a power hitter and he does not benefit from the small park in Cincinnati. In anything, the small outfield hurts India by limiting the number of hits that can fall in front of outfielders or in the gaps.

Other Option: Kolten Wong ($4,000)


THIRD BASE

Stud

Eduardo Escobar, Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers ($5,800) — Jordan Lyles ($6,000) is a pitcher built for stacking against, but it’s hard to build Diamondbacks stacks. In this situation, the common move is to play Escobar (.225 ISO vs. RHP). DFS players are chasing a home run with this play and Lyles underlying metrics support the chase — 38% hard contact rate, 47% fly ball rate and a 16% K rate against left-handed batters.

Other Option: Justin Turner ($5,200)

Value

D.J. LeMahieu, New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays ($4,100) — It’s not very exciting rostering a player with a career average launch angle of 4.4-degrees (3.6-degrees in 2021). However, LeMahieu is a good hitter with a good matchup. Typically, LeMahieu is a better play against left-handed pitchers, but Michael Wacha ($7,900) is a reverse-splits pitcher. The right-handed pitcher struggled with righties in 2019 (.371 wOBA), 2020 (.445 wOBA) and now in 2021 (.369 wOBA). Half of the right-handed contact against Wacha is hard, and if somehow LeMahieu gets under a ball, a rare LeMahieu homer is possible — Wacha is surrendering 2.7 HR/9.

Other Option: Alec Bohm ($3,400)


SHORTSTOP

Stud

Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates ($4,300) — The Brewers are World Series contenders because of their starters and relief pitchers, but Adames in their secret MVP. Before Adames arrived in Milwaukee on May 22, the Brewers’ 78 wRC+ was the second-worst in baseball. Since the trade, Milwaukee’s 99 wRC+ ranks 19th. He’s not a superstar, but with their pitching, they didn’t need one. The pirates filled a rotation spot with a minor leaguer and lost 9-0 on Tuesday. Pittsburgh is projected to do the same thing on Wednesday evening with Max Kranick ($7,000) — 5.47 ERA and 5.28 xFIP in Triple-A.

Other Option: Trevor Story ($5,300)

Value

Thairo Estrada, San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ($3,400) — Loyal readers will notice that Estrada has been mentioned nearly every day this week. Until he cools off and his price increases, that will not change. Since getting called up on June 29, he has collected 19 hits and 13 RBI for a .406 wOBA in 13 starts. Walker Buehler ($10,500) is not a preferred target, but he does have a weakness that can be exploited — 38% hard contact rate, 43% fly ball rate and a .200 BABIP against right-handed batters.

Other Option: Gleyber Torres ($3,500)


OUTFIELD

Stud

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies ($6,400) — Chi Chi González has been a popular stacking target this season. He struggles more with right-handed batters (4.99 xFIP), but he’s far from perfect against lefties (4.87 xFIP), and Ohtani doesn’t really need any help anyway (.427 wOBA, .392 ISO, 176 wRC+ and a 46% hard contact rate vs. RHP).

Other Option: Nelson Cruz ($5,800), Jesse Winker ($4,500)

Value

Justin Upton, Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies ($3,700) — As mentioned above, Chi Chi González struggles with right-handed batters (.387 wOBA, .288 ISO and a 47% hard contact rate), and it’s not because he pitches at Coors Field (away: 4.71 xFIP, .387 wOBA and a .265 ISO). Upton has scuffled since returning from the IL on July 22, but this is a great opportunity for him to get back on track.

Other Option: Andrew McCutchen ($3,800)

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Rally Cap [$100K to 1st]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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