After yet another 2-1 week last Wednesday, we now find ourselves sitting at 29-15 on article plays for the whole of the 2021 season. Not too bad considering we’re now entering the final stretch of July, right?
Let’s try and keep the momentum going. Here are my three favorite plays for tonight’s slate on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers
Diamondbacks ML (-110)
Backing the Diamondbacks on the road is generally a terrible proposition, but for the Rangers, I’ll make a special exception. Arizona is a hilarious 12-41 when playing away from Chase Field this season, but to be fair, Texas’ win on Tuesday snapped a 12-game losing streak, so it’s not like either one of these squads has World Series aspirations.
Anyway, I think the advantage in both starting pitching and offensive potency lies with the D-Backs this evening. Madison Bumgarner has pitched two solid games since coming off the IL on July 16, surrendering just two earned runs across his past 11.0 innings of work. Conversely, Jordan Lyles has conceded a whopping seven home runs in his past two appearances, as Mike Foltynewicz’s woes seem to now be contagious.
Ironically, the Rangers themselves have only been able to muster four long balls since the All-Star break, as the team has posted a microscopic 41 wRC+ in that two-week span. They’ve also struggled with left-handed pitching throughout the entirety of 2021, sporting an American League worst .133 ISO within the split. Simply put, I don’t think Texas will score enough to keep up with Arizona this evening, as the Diamondbacks 119 wRC+ in the second half is the fifth-best mark in baseball. Here’s to road victory No. 13. ...Probably.
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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
In a twist that should shock no one, Alonso is red-hot coming off his Home Run Derby crown, as the slugger is slashing .327/.389/.673 with a 185 wRC+ in his first 54 plate appearances following the All-Star break. That alone makes this prop tantalizing, but the situation Alonso finds himself in tonight only gets better and better.
The Mets will draw the left-handed Max Fried on Wednesday, a pitcher that has struggled to find his footing all season long. The LHP dealt with poor results and injuries back in April and things have just never settled into place since. In fact, Fried enters play this evening with a 6.55 ERA when pitching on the road in 2021, a split where he’s conceded a .556 slugging percentage and a .401 wOBA to opponents. That’s all music to Alonso’s ears, as the 26-year-old has consistently destroyed southpaws the past four months. Alonso owns an eye-popping .374 ISO within the split, while his .437 expected wOBA versus lefties is the sixth-highest qualified mark in the whole league.
Mets ML (-135)
Let’s stay in New York and hop on the Mets moneyline. As mentioned above, Fried has had his issues pitching away from Atlanta so far this season, while Tylor Megill has been an absolute revelation. The rookie has maintained a 2.10 ERA and a 2.16 xERA across his 30.0 innings of work at the MLB level, striking out 33 opponents in the process. Heck, Megill enters play tonight having thrown 12.0 consecutive scoreless innings, with the last six coming against a powerful Blue Jays lineup this past Friday.
New York has also been tearing the cover off the baseball the last two weeks, posting a league-leading 131 wRC+ in that span of time. It’s more than just the aforementioned Alonso carrying the team, too. Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis have all registered a wRC+ above 140 during this stretch, while Michael Conforto appears to be heating up, as well. If the Mets can supply Megill with some run support, it’s hard to see them losing at home on Wednesday night.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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