Saturday features a seven-game MLB main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Alex Cobb, Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles ($9,400) — Baltimore is one of the worst offenses when facing right-handed pitching (83 wRC+, .292 wOBA, .152 ISO and a 25% K rate). They’re the worst team in baseball when it comes to chasing pitches out of the zone (34.6%) and Alex Cobb has the 10th best O-Swing% (36.5%). Cobb should have no problem striking out Orioles in this matchup (28% K rate and a 12% SwStr), and if an Oriole is lucky enough to make contact, then it will likely be a harmless ground ball (57% ground ball rate). Cobb’s 5.09 ERA might scare some DFS players away, but his advanced metrics are elite (2.79 xFIP). His poor traditional stats are likely due to bad luck (.348 BABIP).
Other Option: Clayton Kershaw ($10,000)
Sammy Long, San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks ($8,100) — His price is a little high, but hopefully that will suppress his ownership. The Diamondbacks have been decent against left-handed pitching (101 wRC+), but they’re nothing to worry about, especially at home where they have a .133 ISO against left-handed pitching. Long’s fastball grades out really well (.220 wOBA) and the Diamondbacks rank 22nd against fastballs. Although his fastball is not a strikeout pitch, his Zito-esque curveball can be. The rookie has yet to put it all together and $8,100 is a high asking price, but that will be cheap when it all clicks for Sammy Long. Tonight’s matchup against the Diamondbacks could be a big night for the rookie.
Other Option: Cole Irvin ($7,900)
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Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies ($4,300) — It’s a Coors Field weekend. For whatever reason, most of the Cardinals and Rockies are not getting priced up, but DraftKings has been right. Despite good matchups, both offenses continue to struggle. Kyle Freeland ($5,900) has allowed a .420 wOBA, .247 ISO, 2.6 HR/9 and an 18% K rate to right-handed batters. In 35 at-bats, Molina has a .429 wOBA and a .333 ISO against lefties.
Other Option: Elías Díaz ($4,400)
Editor’s Note: Mariners C Luis Torrens is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Rangers.
Luis Torrens, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers ($3,600) — Jordan Lyles ($7,400) has been a popular target this season. Against right-handed batters, he is allowing a .391 wOBA, .250 ISO, 39% hard contact rate, 2.3 HR/9 and an 18% K rate. The ballpark is less than ideal, but Torrens is cheap and since June 15, he has a .405 wOBA and a .410 ISO.
Other Option: Max Stassi ($4,100)
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox ($5,400) — Garrett Richards ($7,300) has fallen to pieces over the last month and it will take something sticky to put him back together. In his last three starts, his spin rates have seen significant declines. His fastball and slider are down 300 rpm, and his curveball is down 600 rpm. Even if Richards magically learns how to grip the ball again, it won’t matter against Olson. He has a .389 wOBA, .268 ISO, 152 wRC+, 38% hard contact rate and a 13% K rate against right-handed pitchers.
Other Option: C.J. Cron ($5,300)
Bobby Bradley, Cleveland Indians vs. Houston Astros ($4,400) — One of the greatest experiences as a DFS baseball player is watching a young player emerge from the ether, and rostering them each day as they explode on the stat sheet. Since getting called up on June 5, Bradley has hit eight home runs with a .387 wOBA,.365 ISO and a 144 wRC+. Jake Odorizzi ($8,600) is falling behind left-handed hitters (12% BB rate) and that’s resulting in a 41% hard contact rate, which does not fly well with his 48% fly ball rate. Bradley is an affordable home run candidate on Saturday’s slate, but these discount days are soon to expire.
Other Option: Ryan Mountcastle ($4,200)
Editor’s Note: Astros 2B Jose Altuve is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Indians.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians ($5,500) — His .408 wOBA, .327 ISO and 164 wRC+ in June weren’t enough to be named player of the month because some guy named Shohei Ohtani ($6,100) was pretty hot as well. July has started out like June, Altuve hit a grand slam Thursday night, and last night, he singled, stole a base and scored a run. Tonight, he faces Eli Morgan ($7,200) . The Cleveland rookie has a 9.37 ERA in four starts. He’s allowing 44% hard contact and a 51% fly ball rate. Thus, the Astros have a 5.5 implied run total and will likely be one of the most popular stacks on the slate.
Other Option: Max Muncy ($5,600)
Garrett Hampson, Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($4,200) — It’s a Coors Field game, and Hampson is cheap. Based on the splits in this matchup, his price is a head scratcher. In limited work this season, Lefty Wade LeBlanc ($5,600) is allowing a .426 wOBA, .266 ISO, 1.8 HR/9 and a 13% K rate to right-handed batters. Meanwhile, Hampson has a .433 wOBA, .307 ISO, 162 wRC+, 36% hard contact and a 16 % K rate against left-handed pitching.
Other Option: Jed Lowrie ($3,900)
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies ($5,900) — His homecoming has not gone as planned — he’s 0-8 in the Coors Field series. A matchup against Kyle Freeland is a great opportunity to impress his old fans (4.69 xFIP vs. RHB). This is Freeland’s first start since injuring his groin running the bases last week. If he cannot last, then Arenado will face the fourth-worst bullpen in baseball (4.75 xFIP).
Other Option: Matt Chapman ($5,600)
Starlin Castro, Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,900) — This is a tough matchup against Clayton Kershaw ($10,000), but that’s often the case with value players. Castro is one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last week. He has a .391 wOBA, .211 ISO and a 47% hard contact rate.
Other Option: Kyle Seager ($4,100)
Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($6,200) — Over his career, he has crushed left-handed pitchers at Coors field (.449 wOBA, .384 ISO and a 155 w RC+). Those numbers are down significantly this season (.373 wOBA, .191 ISO and a 123 wRC+) just like every Colorado hitter, but unlike the others, Story doesn’t come at a discount. Despite his mediocre season thus far, Story is worth the price against Wade LeBlanc (5.17 xFIP vs. RHB) and the worst bullpen in baseball (4.93 xFIP).
Other Option: Carlos Correa ($5,300)
Ramón Urías, Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels ($2,900) — Targeting the best pitcher on the slate is not a preferable move, but if saving salary at shortstop is necessary, then Urías is a possibility. Alex Cobb ($9,400) has allowed a .364 wOBA to right-handed batters this season and he has been unlucky (.348 BABIP), so it’s not unreasonable to expect some Orioles to reach base. In 38 at-bats against right-handed pitchers, Urías has a .428 wOBA, .263 ISO, 174 wRC+ and a 52% hard contact rate.
Other Option: J.P. Crawford ($3,700)
Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers ($4,700) — He’s having a great season and he’s one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Over the last week, he has a .545 wOBA, .350 ISO and a 50% hard contact rate. Tonight, he faces everyone’s favorite whipping boy, Jordan Lyles (4.54 xFIP vs. RHB). If Lyles doesn’t last long, Haniger will get several at-bats against a bullpen that allows the third-highest hard contact rate (34.8%)
Other Option: Shohei Ohtani ($6,100)
Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners ($4,300) — His ISO was .273 in April and .321 in May, but it plummeted to .189 in June. This is a buy-low spot. Overall, he has a .230 ISO and a 48% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching. His 29 barrels imply that García has the power, he just needs the right pitches. He should see hittable balls against Marco Gonzalez ($7,700). Against right-handed batters, he has allowed a .404 wOBA, .304 ISO, 37% hard contact rate, 2.3 HR/9, 12% BB rate and a 46% fly ball rate. The park might not be a great fit, but the Texas stack is cheap and could be potent in this matchup.
Other Option: Joey Gallo ($4,300)
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