Saturday’s MLB slate is a large one, with all 30 teams in action. The games span the course of the full day, with a nice combination of afternoon and night games to choose from.
Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves:
Braves ML (-124)
Atlanta is sending young left-hander Kyle Muller to the mound on Saturday, and he has been extremely impressive to start his big league career. He’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA and 1.76 FIP through his first 10 innings, and he’s also racked up 13 strikeouts. He was dominant in his last outing, surrendering just one hit and two walks over five scoreless innings vs. the Reds. It’s a small sample size, but Muller certainly looks like he belongs in the big leagues.
He should be able to keep the good times rolling Saturday vs. the Marlins. They rank just 26th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers, and they’ve also posted the third-highest strikeout rate.
The Atlanta offense does face a tough matchup vs. Sandy Alcantara, but they’re much better equipped than the Marlins’ offense. Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies is as good of a top three as there is in baseball, so I have no problems backing them this afternoon.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals:
Dodgers -1.5 runs (-143)
The Dodgers are massive -250 favorites on the moneyline, but we can sweeten those odds a bit by playing them on the run line. They’re sending Clayton Kershaw to the mound, who continues to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s not quite as dominant as he was in his prime, but his 2.88 FIP is his best mark since 2016. His strikeout numbers are also up this season, with his 10.91 K/9 representing his highest mark since 2015.
The Dodgers’ offense should be able to give him plenty of support on Saturday. Nationals right-hander Paolo Espino has pitched to a 2.02 ERA through 35 2/3 innings this season, but he’s done it with smoke and mirrors. Opposing batters have managed a paltry .221 BABIP against Espino, and just 8.7% of his fly balls have turned into home runs. Both of those marks scream regression, and his 4.33 xFIP is a much truer representation of his ability as a pitcher.
The Dodgers possess arguably the best lineup in the league when healthy, and they feast against right-handed pitchers. They rank second in wRC+ in that split this season, despite playing a host of games without Cody Bellinger. They were first in that department last year, and I expect them to regain the top spot in short order.
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Houston Astros @ Cleveland Indians:
Indians ML (+148)
I’ve given you two favorites so far, so let’s wrap things up with an underdog. The Indians are shaping up to be a preferred target for the sharps on Saturday. They’ve received just 25% of the moneyline wagers in this contest, but they have accounted for 34% of the bets. That’s not a massive discrepancy, but it does suggest that some of the professional money is coming in on Cleveland. There has also been some reverse line movement tracked in this contest since Cleveland was listed at +155 at opening.
The Astros have one of the best lineups in baseball, but they were at far less than 100% yesterday. Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker will all out of the lineup, and their lineup is a lot less imposing without those three players. If they’re out again, they’re a bit overpriced.
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