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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Bucks vs. Hawks Showdown on July 3

Matt LaMarca gives his top lineup advice for Saturday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Bucks and the Hawks, which locks at 8:30 p.m. ET.

2021 NBA Playoffs - Atlanta Hawks v Milwaukee Bucks

EDITOR’S NOTE: Hawks PG Trae Young (foot) will play Saturday vs. the Bucks.

Saturday features Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks starting at 8:30 p.m. ET.

This series has been an absolute rollercoaster. Every time you think one team has grabbed the advantage, the other team storms back to take control.

The Bucks were playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 5, but they managed to put together a decisive win at home. Giannis will also miss Game 6, but there is optimism that he could return to the lineup if this series does go seven games. The Bucks are hoping that’s not necessary — they can close out the series with a win in Atlanta in Game 6 — but it is an encouraging sign for their prospects moving forward.

The Hawks need a win on their home court to avoid elimination, and the status of their best player is also up in the air. Trae Young ($15,300 CP; $10,200) has missed the past two games due to an injury, and he’s currently questionable for Game 6. He was a game-time decision in each of the past two contests, and interim head coach Nate McMillan believes Young will get that designation again on Saturday. It remains to be seen if the medical staff will clear him to play, but Young will likely do his best to get on the court in a win-or-go-home contest.

Young’s status will obviously be important from a DFS perspective, so make sure to follow along for updates.

As things stand currently, the Hawks are listed as two-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the total sits at 217.0 points.

DraftKings is offering up a Showdown slate for this contest, so let’s break down some of the top options to consider for your lineups.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $600K Shootaround [$150K to 1st] (MIL vs ATL)


Captain’s Picks

Jrue Holiday ($14,400 CP) – With Giannis out of the lineup, Khris Middleton ($15,600 CP; $10,400) and Holiday will be asked to carry most of the offensive responsibilities. Neither player saw a huge spike in usage in Game 6, but both players were hyper-efficient. Middleton finished with 62.25 DKFP thanks to 26 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists, while Holiday racked up 56.0 DKFP with a double-double of his own.

Both players should provide excellent production again on Saturday, but Holiday is my preferred target of the two. He’s slightly cheaper and his added upside as a distributor is appealing. He’s averaged 16.4 assists per 100 possessions with Giannis off the court during the postseason, and his usage rate is only slightly lower than Middleton’s in that situation.

Regardless of which player you choose at Captain, both of these players should be in your lineup.

Bobby Portis ($9,300 CP) – Portis makes a ton of sense if you want to go with a slightly cheaper option at Captain. The Bucks dusted off Portis for this series after he rode the pine vs. the Nets, and he stepped into a massive workload with Giannis out of the lineup in Game 5. Portis finished with 43.0 DKFP in 35.7 minutes, and he has been a strong per-minute producer all season. He should see a similar workload in Game 6, and he should be able to pay off his current salary with that much playing time.


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UTIL Plays

Trae Young ($10,200) – Young is a big question mark on today’s slate. There’s obviously a chance that he doesn’t play in this contest, and there’s no guarantee that he’s effective if he does. He struggled mightily while playing through his injury in the fourth quarter of Game 3, finishing with just two points, zero assists, zero rebounds and one turnover. If he doesn’t have his trademark explosiveness, it’s going to be tough for him to score given his diminutive stature.

Still, I think he’s worth a gamble if he’s active. Only Giannis has been more productive on a per-minute basis in this series, and Young is priced at a discount at the moment. He’s down to just $10,200 after peaking at $11,800 in Game 2. The injury concerns could also keep his ownership in check, which is always appealing in the single-game format.

If Young is unable to suit up, Lou Williams ($5,200) should draw another start at point guard, and he’s a strong option in that scenario. He’s played at least 35 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s responded with 41.75 and 26.5 DKFP. That kind of production would make him very appealing at his current salary.

Brook Lopez ($7,200) – Lopez was the big winner from the Giannis injury in Game 5. He posted a usage rate of just 13.8% during the first four games, but that mark increased to 25.8% on Thursday. He took full advantage of that increased volume, finishing with 52.75 DKFP while shooting 14-of-18 from the field. We can clearly expect some shooting regression in this contest, but he still has the ability to return value on this slate.

Danilo Gallinari ($3,800) – Gallinari doesn’t see a ton of minutes – especially compared to a guy like P.J. Tucker ($4,400) – but he has arguably the highest upside in this price range. He’s a solid producer on a per-minute basis, and he has the potential to be one of the Hawks’ primary playmakers if Young is inactive.


Fades

Clint Capela ($6,600) – Capela’s price tag continues to drop like a rock. He’s down to just $6,600 on DraftKings after being priced at $9,600 in the first round of the playoffs. Unfortunately, his minutes are down as well. He played just 21.1 minutes in his last game, and he finished with just 23.0 DKFP. It’s hard to make a case for him as a buy-low target.


The Outcome

I like the Bucks as underdogs in this matchup. The Hawks would definitely benefit from the return of Young, but I still think the Bucks are the better squad even if he’s active. They definitely suffer on the defensive end without Giannis, but their offense looked fluid with him out of the lineup. Giannis is a force offensively, but he can clog up the offense a bit at times. With him out of the picture, it gives the rest of the roster plenty of space to do their thing.

Holiday and Middleton are musts for me, but that shouldn’t be too hard to accomplish. Neither player has seen much of a price increase despite Giannis missing his second straight game. Portis also seems mandatory at his current salary.

After that, using Young if he’s active, or Williams if he isn’t, makes a lot of sense. Then it’s just about shuffling the players around to make everything fit.

Final Score: Bucks 114, Hawks 105

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $600K Shootaround [$150K to 1st] (MIL vs ATL)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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