Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Mets vs. Yankees Showdown on July 4

This Subway Series could mark another turning point in Yankee’s history. It’s July the 4th and the Yankees are 9.5 games behind the rival Red Sox. Their secondary rivals, the New York Mets, wiped the floor with the Yankees in game one. If the Yankees get swept this holiday weekend the calls for the firing of Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman will reach a fever pitch.

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New York Mets vs. New York Yankees

Captain’s Picks

Aaron Judge ($15,600 CP) — The Yankees are on the verge of dropping below .500, but it’s not because of Aaron Judge’s performance. He is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Over his last seven games, he has four home runs, seven RBI and six runs scored (.540 wOBA, .538 ISO and a 12.9% K rate). This will likely be a bullpen game for the Mets, but it is speculated that Corey Oswalt ($14,400 CP; $9,600) will start the second game of the double header. Oswalt has tossed six innings against right-handed batters, and in that work, he has allowed a 36% hard contact rate and a 48% fly ball rate. Over his career against right- handed batters (51 innings), Oswalt has surrendered a .370 wOBA and a .262 ISO.

Pete Alonso ($13,200 CP) — Both offenses will face stellar bullpens in shortened games, so the offensive fire power will be limited. The best source for fantasy points will be early game matchups against emergency starters. Nestor Cortes ($8,800) is not an easy matchup, but the splits favor Alonso (.337 wOBA, .174 ISO, 118 wRC+ and a 40% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching). In a small sample of work this season, Cortes has been impressive, but under-the-hood his changes have not been revolutionary. He’s added speed to his fastball, but he’s taken away movement. His fastball’s increased K% is not magic; with less movement on the pitch, it’s easier for Cortes to throw strikes — balls add up to walks and strike add up to strike outs. Alonso will see fastballs in the zone, and he has a good chance of doing damage against the lefty’s fastball (.473 xWOBA). Also, Alonso is hot, over the last week he has a .405 wOBA and .286 ISO.

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Value Plays

Nestor Cortes ($8,800) — This might seem like a galaxy brain move, but let’s think this through. This is the backend of a double-header, and managers are notorious for rolling out watered down lineups in doubleheaders. Even if a decent lineup is posted, the hitters subconsciously rebel, and take a lackadaisical approach at the plate that favors pitchers. The problem with Cortes is that he’s a relief pitcher, and it’s going to be difficult for him to earn the win. Those four points are significant at his price and make putting him in the captain’s spot a difficult decision. However, it’s not hard to imagine that Cortes returns value by pitching three to four scoreless innings and striking out a handful of Mets. He has pitched over three innings three times this season and he has a 35.7% K rate. The Mets rank in the bottom half of the league against handed pitching (94 wRC+, .301 wOBA, 144 ISO and a 25% K rate).

Brett Gardner ($6,000) — Corey Oswalt has a 5.67 xFIP against left-handed pitching over his career. The sample size is limited because he has been limited. With numbers like that, he gets sent back to the minors quickly. Gardner had a .370 wOBA, .238 ISO and a 135 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in June. He’ll likely only draw one matchup against Oswalt, but but after that, he should face right-handed relievers.

Fades

Francisco Lindor ($13,800 CP; $9,200) - This just isn’t his year. Most DFS players know better than to click on his name during a regular slate, but with limited options on a showdown slate, he has name brand appeal. The steel man argument for playing Lindor is that he has appeared to have turned the corner (.330 wOBA and a .213 ISO in June), but those are not the numbers that DFS players expect from Lindor. His strikeout rate in June (19% K rate) was significantly higher than his career average (14.4%). Lastly, Lindor has not been a great hitter against left-handed pitching. Over the last three seasons, his wOBA against left-handed pitching has been below .330 and his .177 ISO has been below the league average.

The Outcome

It’s not looking good for the Yankees, but their season is not over yet. Cortes with the support of the second-best bullpen in baseball (3.84 xFIP) will be able to hold a mediocre offense in check on the backend of the double header. At least for one night, the Bronx will regain bragging rights.

Final Score: Yankees 4, Mets 2

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