It’s the Fourth of July, and that means we’ve got a jam-packed slate with plenty of games to choose from in the afternoon and so many valuable lines out there that it’s hard to pick just a few. With that said, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lucas Giolito has really lost his way in the post-sticky stuff era, seeing a sharp drop in his average spin rates over the last two starts to a season-low his last time out. In that outing, he allowed three earned runs over six frames and struck out just one, a massive sign that something is wrong.
I like Detroit’s chances of getting four or more runs on the board against whatever version of Giolito this is, and on the other side of the coin, I’ve been really impressed with the way the White Sox have hit in spite of all their injuries.
Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets and Brian Goodwin aren’t the names you would have thought would lead Chicago over the past week, but that trio has more than made up for injuries to Yoan Moncada and Ysamani Grandal. I like their chances against Matt Manning, who has also been struggling in the strikeout department and so far hasn’t enjoyed life at the big-league level.
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but German Marquez is good. The righty has been surprisingly effective for Colorado, particularly at home where he owns a 3.06 ERA in 11 starts. His hard-hit rate is a pleasant 35.4% and his expected ERA perfectly matches his real-life ERA. The fact that he’s pitched so well at Coors Field should be proof enough that he’s kept the ball on the ground and induced some tappers, and the Statcast data would back that up.
Carlos Martinez, meanwhile, is a different story. His strikeout rate is a dangerously-low 15.7%, and you’re not going to pitch to contact at Coors Field to any sort of success. He’s struggled all year long in the quality contact department and a Rockies team that is playing much better, and has always played well at home, should be up to the task of getting to Martinez.
Another pitcher that seems to be good is James Kaprielian. He’s been very effective in his first full big-league season, relying on his fastball to get him out of plenty of tight spots. It just so happens that he’s also given up six of his eight homers when throwing the fastball, and that is actually a very good thing to hear considering the Red Sox rank 14th in weighted runs per 100 fastballs this year.
There isn’t too much between these two offenses, and that’s something we’ve seen play out over the last two days. There is something between these two pitchers, though. Nick Pivetta continues to be awful, and has now allowed 15 earned runs in his last four starts. There was a brief period where it looked like the former Phillies right-hander was turning it around, but it was merely a flash in the pan. Pivetta is who he’s always been, and that’s someone that will hold his team back from winning.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.