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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for July 5

Steve Buchanan breaks down Monday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Miami Marlins v Atlanta Braves Photo by Edward M. Pio Roda/Getty Images

The weekend might be over but baby, we still celebrating tonight. Let’s throw some baseball into the mix as well and make you some of that green in the process.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.


DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Joe Musgrove, $8,700, San Diego Padres (-225) vs. Washington Nationals (+185) — The Padres are the biggest favorites on the board tonight, as they host the Nationals and Jon Lester ($6,700). The Padres simply don’t falter as home favorites, going 28-12 on the moneyline and 21-19 on the run line. When Musgrove is on the mound, he’s also been one of the best options to bet on, as the Padres are 9-7 in his starts, which include three straight wins.

The Nationals lost arguably their biggest bat recently, as Kyle Schwarber was placed on the injured list with a significant hamstring injury. This has moved Josh Harrison ($3,000) into the leadoff spot and believe me when I tell you, he’s not Schwarber. Harrison provides very little power, which is the complete opposite of Schwarber. He doesn’t strikeout much but it’s a glaring hole in this offense now. With Schwarber out of the mix, the Nationals drop down to a .154 ISO against righties, which ranks them 17th. That goes along with a .313 wOBA, a 95 wRC+ and a 23.2% K%.

As for Musgrove, we’ve seen his best baseball pitched at home in Petco Park. Here, he’s thrown 48 innings, allowing just a .248 wOBA, a 2.95 FIP and a 0.94 HR/9. Not as if Musgrove gives up many home runs to begin with but the loss of Schwarber once again comes to mind. The only real blip on the radar for Musgrove has been lefties but the Nationals don’t have many to roll out. They’ve tagged him for a 4.05 FIP and eight of the 11 home runs he’s given up. At best, we’d like see Juan Soto ($5,500), Josh Bell ($5,100) and Gerardo Parra ($2,000) in the lineup tonight

Other notable favorite: Rich Hill ($9,100; -200) vs. Cleveland Indians


Highest Projected Total

Philadelphia Phillies (+120; 5.5 runs) at Chicago Cubs (-140; 5.5 runs) 11 runs — We have a number of games with a double-digit total for tonight but this one is the biggest at 11 runs. Coincidently enough, neither team has been strong hitting the over with the Phillies at 39-42 (48.1%) and the Cubs with the second-worst record at 31-48-5 (39.2%).

I’m pretty torn on this total if we’re being honest. I mean when you see that Matt Moore ($6,000) is pitching, you expect runs like you expect fireworks on Fourth of July. As a starter, Moore has a .400 wOBA, a 6.53 FIP and a 2.3 HR/9 through just 16 innings. Then the Phillies bullpen comes in after a likely short outing from Moore and oh my goodness have they been bad or what? Over the past week, the relievers have combined to allow 21 run on 28 hits in just 20 1/3 innings.

The Cubs offense isn’t exactly crushing the ball right now, averaging just 2.6 runs over their last five games but they have quite an enticing matchup. I would be more inclined to take the over 5.5 runs for the Cubs rather than going over 11 runs on the game total.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Bat Flip [$100K to 1st


Weather Notes

The Fourth of July is over so naturally, perfect day across the country. Thanks a lot.


Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Bailey Ober, .500, 7.86
Chase De Jong, .351, 4.42
Mike Minor, .341, 2.47

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Brandon Woodruff, .194, 2.27
Jon Lester, .205, 2.98
Kolby Allard, .229, 2.80


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters


Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Chase De Jong, .425, 6.32
Matt Moore, .422, 6.57
Logan Allen, .415, 8.92

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Suarez, .185, 2.69
Joe Musgrove, .211, 2.69
Brandon Woodruff, .235, 3.37


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, $10,400 — Woodruff is the most expensive pitcher on this slate but I’m more than ok with paying up for him against the Mets. This team looked good against the Yankees pitching staff but I mean, who doesn’t at this point? Overall against righties, the Mets have just a .296 wOBA, a .139 ISO, a 91 wRC+ and a 24.3% K%. The K% is ranked 12th in the league and now they face Woodruff, who sports a 10.6 K/9 and a 12.2% swing-and-miss rate. He’s also thrown his best baseball on the road, with a ridiculous .174 wOBA, a 2.70 FIP and four of the nine home runs he’s allowed. Checks all the boxes for me.


Stud Hitter to Pay For

Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, $5,800 — Targeting against De Jong tonight is an ideal matchup. As you’ve seen above, his numbers against both sides of the plate are horrendous. Specifically against lefties, he has a .351 wOBA, and a 4.42 FIP. Freeman has been hitting well lately, averaging just under 10 DKFP over the past 10 games with three doubles, a home run and six RBI. The Braves should be one of the more popular stacking options to consider and Freeman should be right in the middle of your stacks. On the road against righties, Freeman is boasting a .358 wOBA with a .202 ISO and five home runs.


Save Big by Drafting

Jake Marisnick, Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies, $2,600 — Marisnick should draw the start tonight with the lefty Moore on the hill. He’s hit lefties well to the tune of a .373 wOBA, a .186 ISO and a 137 wRC+. Getting the weak lefty in Moore doesn’t hurt either, so I think this is a great way to get some value in the outfield. Usually when Marisnick gets the draw, he usually doesn’t get pinch-hit for either, unlike some other players who only draw the start against a particular split.

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