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Most starting pitchers have logged two outings since MLB brought down the hammer on the sticky substance chaos, making strikeout props a little easier to navigate again. DraftKings Sportsbook had two for Monday’s slate I could not resist. For those who prefer taking action on hitters, fear not — I still have something for you.
If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
Brandon Woodruff over 7.5 strikeouts +105
Over the last two weeks, only the Cubs are striking out against right-handed pitching more frequently than the Mets. But no team, not even the Cubs, has a lower OPS or ISO against righties than New York during that span; yes, this factors in the Mets’ dismantling of Gerrit Cole on Sunday.
Also, the Mets have been chasing pitches out of the zone often during that span, but they aren’t making much contact with those offerings. All of this bodes well for Woodruff, who’s coming off back-to-back starts in which he hit the over on Monday’s strikeout prop, giving him eight-plus strikeouts in five of his last seven outings.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Swing for the Fences [$100K to 1st]
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
White Sox over 5.5 runs +105
Chicago has scored six-plus runs in six of its last seven games, only coming up short on Saturday in a 11-5 loss vs. the Tigers. While there was no shortage of offense in the series vs. Detroit, the White Sox fared better against the team they faced prior — which also happens to be the same team they’re playing Monday. Twins pitching gave up 28 runs over three games vs. the White Sox (June 29 to July 1), bottoming out at seven and peaking at 13.
And the one who started the 13-run affair was none other than Bailey Ober, the same starter set to take the mound Monday. The Minnesota right-hander was responsible for five of Chicago’s runs in that June 30 contest, only lasting 3 1/3 innings after giving up four runs over 4 1/3 to the Reds in his prior outing on June 22.
Buried under all of this: next to no one is hotter against right-handed pitching than the White Sox. Chicago has the best OPS against righties over the last two weeks and the fifth-highest ISO.
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Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Trevor Rogers over 5.5 strikeouts -140
While the Woodruff pick is as much about the opposing lineup as the pitcher, this one is more about the individual on the bump Monday. Rogers has only struck out fewer than six batters twice all season, bottoming out at five on both May 24 vs. Philadelphia and June 5 vs. Pittsburgh.
Rogers faced that same Phillies lineup last time out, and he punched out nine over 5 2/3 — despite the fact Philadelphia hasn’t been striking out much against left-handers since June 1 while ranking in the top 10 in OPS and ISO against lefties during that stretch. Rogers also hit the over on Monday’s prop on June 23 vs. Toronto, a lineup that’s been just as productive as Philly against lefties despite striking out more frequently against those pitchers.
The Dodgers rank 11th in ISO against lefties since June 1 and 19th in OPS, so there isn’t reason to expect Rogers will get bounced before the fifth. What’s more, Los Angeles has the lowest O-Contact% over the last two weeks. While the Dodgers may not swing those pitches as much as other teams, their struggles with those offerings will play a role on Monday since they’re up against a starter who’s good at getting hitters to swing and miss at those pitches.
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