After a very early postponement between the Indians and Rays, tonight’s schedule features 14 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s chat about it.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jacob deGrom, $11,500, New York Mets (-275) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (+225) — If deGrom is taking the hill, you know he’s going to be the biggest favorite on the night. He’ll take on the Brewers for the first time this season and will look to pile on the strikeouts against a team with a 25.7% K% against righties, which is the fourth highest in the league. Overall, the Brewers offensive numbers have been improving lately but they still sport just a .303 wOBA, a .154 ISO and a 90 wRC+ against righties. We’re certainly not looking to target these hitters against deGrom unless you’re looking to make a yolo tournament lineup.
The Mets have been a very strong team as home favorites, going 19-8 on the moneyline, good for a 70.4% winning percentage. Overall in 10 deGrom starts, the Mets have gone 10-4, including eight in a row that was snapped in his last start against the Braves, when he gave up three runs on five hits with 14 strikeouts through seven innings.
Other notable favorite: Dane Dunning ($7,400; -190) vs. Detroit Tigers
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Highest Projected Total
New York Yankees (-157; 5.5 runs) at Seattle Mariners (+133; 3.5 runs) 9.5 runs — The Yankees are in a total panic currently, going 3-7 over their last 10 games and now sit fourth in the American League East. The head across the country to begin a series against the Mariners, who have been hitting well as of late. As road favorites the Yankees are are 17-16 on the moneyline while the Mariners are 17-10 as home underdogs. When it comes to hitting the over, the Yankees are one of the worst in the league at 37-44-2, while the Mariners are 43-39-3.
Both pitchers have been struggling for their respective teams, which has me leaning on the over in this game. Jameson Taillon ($7,200) has pitched very little on the road this season but has been shelled in those starts. Through 17 innings, Taillon has been tagged for 21 runs on 30 hits, giving him a .443 wOBA, a 4.98 FIP and four of the 14 home runs he’s given up. The biggest issue overall for Taillon has been lefties, who have tagged him with a .375 wOBA, a 6.00 FIP and nine of the 14 home runs he’s given up. The Mariners have quite a few lefties they can roll out so pay attention to this one.
Justus Sheffield ($6,800) also has seen his fair share of struggles, specifically at home. He’s thrown 37 innings here and has a .360 wOBA with a 5.51 FIP and six of the 13 home runs he’s given up. He’s a lefty, so righties are the bane of his existence, as they’ve hit 11 home runs and given him a .391 wOBA and a 5.54 FIP. The Yankees are a very right-handed heavy club, so I’m expecting a short outing from Sheffield.
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Weather Notes
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins - Looks to be the biggest concern on the slate with a late start almost guaranteed. They could get this game in if they wait it out but that’s out of our hands.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles & Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets - Both games could have a slight delay but should be clear to play after.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Urena, .405, 6.62
Jose Berrios, .389, 4.79
Jameson Taillon, .375, 6.00
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .186, 1.54
Ryan Weathers, .210, 2.06
Carlos Rodon, .232, 1.07
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Justus Sheffield, .422, 5.54
Kris Bubic, .415, 5.92
Jake Arrieta, .345, 5.49
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .149, 0.50
Jose Berrios, .221, 2.65
Carlos Rodon, .244, 2.79
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals $8,500 — While some pitchers have been taking a step back as of late due to the lack of that sticky icky icky, Castillo has been the opposite. Since the beginning of June, he’s completely turned his season around and has allowed a total of 10 runs in his last six starts. Over that span, Castillo a .237 wOBA, a 2.76 FIP, a 25.2% K% and a 0.2 HR/9. For reference, before that, Castillo was looking at a .385 wOBA, a 4.80 FIP, 19.3% K% and a 1.4 HR/9. The numbers don’t lie, he’s really been good lately. This is a really solid salary to get him at and with some of the other big names on this slate, I think Castillo will go overlooked.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs, $5,000 — I’m not sure how much longer the Cubs are going to let Jake Arrieta ($7,900) remain in the rotation, as he’s been getting shelled start after start. At least for tonight though, we have NO problem letting him take the mound. His numbers, specifically against lefties, are downright horrific. Arrieta comes into this game with a .373 wOBA, a 6.16 FIP, eight of the 16 home runs he’s allowed and and 37% hard-hit rate. Harper has put up some strong power numbers on the road against righties this season, accounting for five of his 14 home runs and a .273 ISO.
Save Big by Drafting
Austin Hays, Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $3,000 — If I’m putting Hays into my lineup, it means he’s facing a lefty. It’s the only matchup worth using him, as his numbers are massively different from when he faces righties. Hays has a .425 wOBA, a .254 ISO and a 172 wRC+ against them through 72 plate appearance this season. Tonight he gets Steven Matz ($7,800) who didn’t exactly have a good welcome back to the rotation his last time out against the Mariners. They tagged him for four runs on five hits in just 2 2⁄3 innings. The Orioles have been a sneaky offense against lefties and Hays is one of those guys.
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