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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Targets, Values for July 7

Pearce Dietrich gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Wednesday’s fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings, which starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Wednesday features a nine-game MLB main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.


For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.


PITCHER

Stud

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs ($10,300) — Strikeouts are king in DFS. Wheeler strikes batters out (31.3% K rate) and the Cubs strike out. Their 27% K rate against right-handed pitching is the highest on the slate. Wheeler’s repertoire is diverse, it consists of a 97 mph fastball (.287 wOBA), one of the best sliders in the league (2.20 wSL/C — average amount of runs saved using 100 sliders) and a solid curveball (46.9% Whiff% and a 18.9% SwStr%). Since the beginning of June, the Cubs have been the worst offense against right-handed pitching (76 wRC+, .279 wOBA and a 29.8% K rate).

Other Option: Corbin Burnes ($10,500)

Value

Antonio Senzatela, Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks ($6,600) — First of all, he’s not pitching in Colorado, but that didn’t seem to hurt him in his last start (seven innings and two earned runs). Senzatela lacks strike out upside, but he could go deep into this game. The Diamondbacks are terrible at home against right-handed pitching (92 wRC+, 309 wOBA and a .150 ISO). They have the fourth-lowest fly ball rate and Senzatela is an extreme ground ball pitcher his 52.9% ground ball rate is the sixth best in baseball.

Other Option: Humberto Castellanos ($4,000)


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CATCHER

Stud

Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($5,100) — Against right-handed pitching, he has a .397 wOBA, .214 ISO and a 156 wRC+. There is always the concern that San Francisco's massive ballpark limits fantasy production, but Posey’s home stats mirror his away stats. If the season ended today, Posey’s .413 wOBA and .219 ISO would be career bests. NOTE: The X-ray results on Posey’s thumb were negative, but he has missed the last two games with a contusion. The Giants have lost both of those games, so getting him back in the lineup should be a priority.

Other Option: Omar Narvaez ($5,000)

Value

J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs ($3,400) — This has been a tough season for the Phillies, but Realmuto has been fine. His price gives the general impression that he is struggling this season, but other than his .183 ISO, his numbers have been consistent with his career stats. Alec Mills ($7,400) has been solid against right-handed batters, but the rookie is by no means a pitcher that must be avoided.

Other Option: Yan Gomes ($2,500)

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Swing for the Fences [$50K to 1st]


FIRST BASE

Stud

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles ($5,900) — There are two scenarios for Matt Harvey ($6,100): Implosion or four ugly innings. Either scenario justifies a Blue Jays stack. Guerrero has been a much better hitter against right-handed pitching (.479 wOBA, .369 ISO, 206 wRC+ and a 45% hard contact rate), and surprisingly, the right-handed Blue Jays has been slightly better against right-handers than lefties.

Other Option: Matt Olson ($5,200)

Value

Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres ($2,000) — He’s not the hitter that he once was, but he still hits the ball hard (.235 ISO and a 46% hard contact rate vs. RHP). Chris Paddack ($8,700) has a 3.32 xFIP against right-handed batters, thanks in most part to his 28% K rate. However, when Paddack does not miss bats, he gets in to trouble. He allows a little too much hard contact (35%) and a little too many fly balls (38%), and the result is a .358 wOBA, .237 ISO and 2.0 HR/9.

Other Option: Trey Mancini ($3,900)


SECOND BASE

Stud

Marcus Semien, Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles ($5,500) — Against right-handed pitching, Semien has a 0.382 wOBA, .261 ISO, 141 wRC+ and a 37% hard contact rate. He’s not facing any old right-hander, he’s facing Matt Harvey (.408 wOBA, .216 ISO, 1.6 HR/9 and a 18% K rate). To Harvey’s credit, he has limited his fly ball rate (26%) and and his HR/FB rate (14%) isn’t that much higher than the league average, but it doesn’t seem to matter because he does not miss bats. His 82% contact rate and 27% O-Swing% are among the worst in baseball.

Other Option: Max Muncy ($5,800)

Value

Brad Miller, Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs ($3,400) — The left slugger should draw the start against Alec Mills. The Cubs rookie has been above average against right-handed batters, but he struggles with lefties (.378 wOBA and a 15% K rate). Miller’s biggest weakness is the hole in his swing (33.7% K rate), so a low strike out pitcher is just what he needs to let his power come through (43% hard contact rate vs. RHP).

Other Option: Donovan Solano ($4,200)


THIRD BASE

Stud

Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees ($4,000) — For most slates this season, Seattle’s power-hitting lefty has been a value option. Based on price, he qualifies as value, but Seager is a stud based on recent performances. Over the last week, Seager has a .391 wOBA and a .286 ISO. Domingo Germán ($7,700) is allowing a 43% hard contact rate, 1.8 HR/9 and a 47% flay ball rate to left-handed batters. This matchup has home run written all over it.

Other Option: Justin Turner ($5,500)

Value

Santiago Espinal, Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles ($3,700) — Every Blue Jay could be featured today. Matt Harvey has a .400 BABIP against right-handed batters. At a certain point in the season, a high BABIP is not bad luck — it’s the result of allowing too much contact. Espinal will be a key value component of the Blue Jays stack, if he’s in the lineup. Against right-handed pitching, he has a .372 wOBA, .200 ISO and a 134 wRC+, In June, the every-other-day infielder had a .466 wOBA in 41 plate appearances.

Other Option: Starlin Castro ($2,600)


SHORTSTOP

Stud

Trea Turner, Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres (5,800) — On Sunday, Turner has a day off to rest his finger. The next day, he used that finger to point to the home run that he hit over the wall. Chris Paddock is one of the worst pitchers on the slate. He’s surrendered a .358 wOBA, .237 ISO and 2.0 HR/9 to right-handed batters in 15 starts. Victor Caratini ($2,700) will likely be the catcher for the Padres, and he’s not known for throwing runners out (30 stolen bases allowed and three caught stealing).

Other Option: Bo Bichette ($5,500)

Value

J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees ($4,400) — Brandon Crawford ($5,200) is no longer a cheap option at shortstop, but J.P. will remain for a while. Crawford light has a .117 ISO, he’s a throwback to the Texas Leaguers of a century ago — a Punch and Judy hitter. He won’t reach value with one at-bat, but he’ll get there over the course of five at-bats. In June, he had the fourth-most hits (38), and posted a .397 wOBA and a 157 wRC+.

Other Option: Miguel Rojas ($2,900)


OUTFIELD

Stud

Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($5,000) — The Giants’ 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching ranks fourth-best in baseball. Yaz has been a key contributor to that stat (.385 wOBA, .318 ISO and a 148 wRC+). The ballpark will scare away most DFS players, but the DFS players that take the time to dig into the numbers or just read this blurb, will be rewarded. At home, Yaz has a .383 wOBA, .270 ISO and a 150 wRC+. On the road, he has a 310 wOBA, .234 ISO and a 95 wRC+. The Giants would not be in first place if they could not hit in their cavernous ballpark.

Other Option: Bryce Harper ($4,600)

Value

Jackie Bradley Jr., Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets ($2,800) — The Brewers offense is terrible (90 wRC+), but they’re in first place. Jackie Bradley is a personification of this offense. He doesn’t do anything really well, but he does just enough to beat you. Over his last seven games, he has a .383 wOBA, two stolen bases and a 19.2% K rate. If Bradley can limit the strikeouts and put the ball in play, then his numbers could turn around. His career year in 2020 was due to a .343 BABIP.

Other Option: Steven Duggar ($3,500)

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Swing for the Fences [$50K to 1st]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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