The games are all over the place on this Wednesday, so we’ll chat about the slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET and features nine of those games.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Julio Urias, $8,300, Los Angeles Dodgers (-210) at Miami Marlins (+175) — The Dodgers are the biggest favorites on the board tonight but that hasn’t exactly gone well lately. They’ve dropped two straight to the Marlins who were +124 on the moneyline last night and +117 the night prior. With these two wins for the Marlins, they move to 8-6 on the moneyline as home underdogs while the Dodgers go to 25-18 as road favorites. To the Dodgers credit, they almost never lose when Urias is on the mound this season, going 13-4 in games he starts, including five of his last six.
Despite losing two straight games, it’s hard to not back the Dodgers in this spot. Aside from how well they’ve done with Urias on the mound, the Marlins are one of the worst offenses in the league against lefties. They enter this game with just a .290 wOBA, a .147 ISO and an 86 wRC+. They rank only 25th in runs scored, 22nd in home runs and 29th in OPS as well, which makes this extremely tough for the Fish. Aside from a couple of blips on the radar, Urias has been uber efficient on the mound and boasts a 3.50 FIP through 99 1⁄3 innings.
Other notable favorite: Hyun Jin Ryu ($8,300; -190) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Highest Projected Total
Toronto Blue Jays (-195; 6.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (+165; 4.5 runs) 11 runs — A massive total in Baltimore tonight, which includes a 6.5 team total for the Blue Jays? Why? Well my friends, our good buddy Matt Harvey ($6,100) is taking the mound tonight! Now, to be fair, Harvey has pitched “somewhat” better as of late and even held these Jays to three runs on six hits through 5 2⁄3 innings a couple of weeks ago. That said, his FIP indicates it should have been much worse, as he ended with at 7.58 in that start. Harvey is not someone to trust at all. I mean if Jim Carey can’t trust a sweet old lady on a scooter to watch his stuff, who can you trust? The Blue Jays 6.5 run total is insanely high but would you really feel good about taking the under? For what it’s worth, the Blue Jays have not been a great team hitting the over on the game total, going 38-42-3.
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs - At this rate, I think the Cubs would LOVE a cancelation because you can’t lose if you don’t play. Rain will be around all throughout the night.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Alec Mills, .378, 5.19
Johan Oviedo, .370, 5.71
Luis Garcia, .338, 4.50
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Yusei Kikuchi, .186, 3.41
Zack Wheeler, .241, 2.15
Sean Manaea, .247, 3.71
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Harvey, .408, 4.77
Patrick Corbin, .368, 5.95
Antonio Senzatela, .360, 4.81
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Zack Wheeler, .237, 2.44
Luis Garcia, .242, 3.19
Yusei Kikuchi, .295, 4.55
Pitcher to Build Around
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, $10,300 — As long as the weather cooperates, Wheeler is by far the best pitching option on this slate, in my opinion (and many others I’m sure). The Cubs are down bad, man. They’ve lost 11 games in a row and are averaging just 3.1 runs per game over that span. I mean, how bad does it get when you score 10 runs in a game AND STILL LOSE (15-10 last night)!? Now they face Wheeler, who has been downright untouchable since the month of June. Since then, he has a .224 wOBA, a 1.86 FIP, a 30.5% K% and just a 0.2 HR/9. Bring all those numbers against a team that is completely down and out right now? Uh, yeah, we play Wheeler tonight (weather permitting).
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals, $5,300 — Machado is absolutely crushing the ball right and now draws a matchup against Patrick Corbin ($8,000). Going against lefties is always the plus matchup for Machado, who boasts a .338 wOBA, a .228 ISO and a 116 wRC+ against them. Getting Machado out has been a tall task for everyone lately, as the Padres third baseman is averaging 11.6 DKFP over his last 10 games which includes three home runs, two doubles, nine RBI and a stolen base. As for Corbin, he’s been much, much worse on the road and has a .365 wOBA with a 5.75 FIP away from Nationals Park.
Save Big by Drafting
Harrison Bader, St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, $2,700 — After a very strong start to the season, we’ve seen Alex Wood ($8,500) take a step back as of late, posting a .351 wOBA with a 4.93 FIP and a 1.16 HR/9 in the month of June. I’m not a big fan of the Cardinals overall but I do like Bader, who all throughout his career has been a much better bat against lefties than righties. Since the beginning of last season, Bader has a .514 wOBA with a .500 ISO with four home runs and seven RBI over 37 plate appearances. If you want to pull this back even further, Bader has a career .363 wOBA with a .267 ISO and a 129 wRC+ in 301 plate appearances.
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