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MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks, Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for July 7

Garion Thorne gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s MLB betting card.

Well, we got burned by a pitch count last week, but we still managed to finish the day 2-1 on article plays which now puts us at 25-13 for the season as a whole. I’d mention how many units we’re up, but I’m lazy and I’ve always kind of thought that word makes you sound like a dork. It’d be pretty good, though. Let’s just say “several” units. That work? Cool.

Anyway, here are my three favorite bets for tonight’s slate on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs

Phillies ML (-134)

Look, I’ll be the first to acknowledge the Ackbar in the room: This very much feels like a trap. The Cubs come into Wednesday having lost 11-straight games and the Phillies are sending their best pitcher to the mound in Zack Wheeler. How is this line not higher?

However, as someone wise and obsessed with ponds once said, if it walks like a duck and quacks — it’s probably a duck. Maybe Philadelphia hasn’t been a phenomenal team on the road so far in 2021, but the Phillies have tended to come out victorious when Wheeler is on the mound, having won eight of his past 11 starts. The reason for that? Zack Wheeler is a bonafide stud. The right-hander has pitched to a 1.52 ERA and a 1.94 FIP across his last eight outings, a span of time where he’s also rocking a 35.1% strikeout rate. With Chicago in possession of a paltry 76 wRC+ the past 30 days, I’m just not sure how this lineup will be able to produce against the red-hot Wheeler. Let’s not overthink this one.

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Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres

Team Total: Padres Over 4.5 Runs (-108)

The Padres have the second-highest implied team total on tonight’s slate and there are more than a few reasons for that. First and foremost, San Diego has simply been tearing the cover off of the ball the past couple of weeks. In fact, across the past 14 days, the Padres lead the entire league in ISO (.216), wOBA (.363) and wRC+ (132). An insane Fernando Tatis Jr. stretch is squarely in the middle of this offensive charge, but the phenom hasn’t been doing this all by himself. Manny Machado’s posted a 203 wRC+ in this span, Trent Grisham has a .424 wOBA and Jurickson Profar is hitting .440. There are many ways this team can hurt an opposing pitcher.

Speaking of, it’ll be Patrick Corbin toeing the rubber for the Nationals, and while the veteran has certainly improved since a nightmarish April, it’s not like he’s been the reincarnation of Randy Johnson, either. The left-hander has surrendered 2.7 opponent home runs per nine in his past three starts and, on the road in 2021, Corbin’s registered an underwhelming 6.56 ERA while conceding 2.02 long balls per nine. That won’t get it done tonight.


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Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels

Andrew Heaney Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-121)

While Heaney does possess immense strikeout upside, he’s also one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball. You can never be too sure which version of the left-hander is going to show up, which is how you end up with a 5.40 ERA across 71.2 innings of work. Heck, coming into Wednesday’s outing, Heaney has surrendered 15 earned runs in his past 14.0 innings. That’s simply not a formula that is going to allow a starter to work deep into games, which explains why the southpaw has failed to clear this prop in five of his past eight trips to the mound.

On top of all that, there’s the imposing nature of this Red Sox lineup. Boston enters plays fourth in the majors in slugging percentage (.438) and they haven’t had to sacrifice contact skills to achieve that power. In fact, against left-handed pitching, the Red Sox have the second-lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball (21.3%). Between their reluctance to swing and miss and the wild card aspects of Heaney’s campaign, I have serious doubts the lefty will be able to rack up seven strikeouts.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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