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This is not your father’s NASCAR. The Indianapolis Grand Prix Circuit is the sixth road course race of the season and there is still one more to go (The Roval at Charlotte Motor Speedway). This weekend marks the first time ever in NASCAR history that the Cup Series is racing at road courses on back-to-back weeks. As NASCAR changes its image, will surprise winners begin to emerge?
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Chase Elliott to Win (+200)
Last week, he failed to deliver as the favorite, but he was a lot closer to winning than he should have been. Before the race, a part from his car was confiscated, his crew chief was ejected and Elliott had to start in the back. Mid way through the race, he had to pit early because he flat spotted his tires. A lot went wrong for Elliott and in his own words, “I made too many mistakes.” Despite those circumstances, Elliott finished a close second to Kyle Larson.
This weekend, Elliott will experience the Indianapolis road course for the first time, but inexperience should not be much of a factor. This track will be new to nearly the entire field, and they will get participate in a practice session Saturday morning. Road America was a relatively new experience for Elliott, but with practice, he won the race despite starting at the tail end of the field. Hendrick Motorsports continues to build the best cars every week, especially at road courses (first, second and sixth place finishes at Watkins Glen), so betting against the best road course driver in the best equipment is a risky proposition.
Austin Cindric to Win (+3000)
Very few drivers have experience at the Indy road course except for Austin Cindric and the 2020 Xfinity regulars. Cindric should have won the inaugural Xfinity Indy GP race last season, but NASCAR kneecapped Cindric with a controversial green flag penalty to begin stage 2. He battled back to the front, but before he could take the lead, he tangled with A.J. Allmendinger, and the scuffle cost both of them a shot at the win. At Road America, Cindric looked like a threat to win the Cup race. He ran inside the top 5 for most of the first stage, then battled for the lead in stage 2 before a mechanical issue ended his day at the midway point.
The roval type events have been chaotic in NASCAR. The winner hasn’t been an absolute shocker, but Christopher Bell was a a longshot at the Daytona Road Course (+6000). Late race cautions have created drama in these events, and the February DRC event was no different. If this race stays green at the end, then a Hendrick car will likely cruise into Victory Lane, but if there are yellow flags toward the end, a longshot bet could prove lucrative.
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A.J. Allmendinger to Win (+2000)
Does he have the equipment to beat the top tier teams? The answer is an empathic no. If this race is green, then Allmendinger’s Kaulig car will not be able to hang with the JGR Toyotas or the Hendrick Chevys. If there are cautions in stage 3, then all bets are off. His car won’t be able to run down and pass others, but he might be able to block faster cars. Last season, Chase Briscoe was able to hold off a faster A.J. Allmendinger and Austin Cindric to get the win in the Xfinity race at the Indianapolis road course. Allmendinger has the advantage of past experience at this track, and he will be running double duty this weekend. He doesn’t need the stars to align while the clouds part and simultaneously Mercury shifts into retrograde. Zeus does not need to intervene, nor is a deus ex machina ending necessary for Allmendinger to score the win. The Dinger wasn’t supposed to win at Watkins Glen for JTG Daugherty Racing in 2014, but he made some longshot betters very happy on that day.
Ross Chastain to Win (+4000)
Before this season, no one ever considered Ross Chastain to be an adept road racer, but he has opened some eyes. He finished fourth at COTA, seventh at Sonoma and seventh at Road America. Last week, he was in eighth place, but he spun on the final lap an finished 12th. It’s hard to expect a driver to win when he hasn’t even earned a top-5 finish, but the same logic for Allmendinger applies for Chastain. If there are late race cautions, Chastain has been fast enough to be in a position to benefit. Sonoma, Road America and Watkins Glen were all green races in stage 3. The drivers running up front deserved to be there, and Chastain was one of those drivers. In the 2020 Pennzoil 150 at the Brickyard, Chastain finished sixth. Zeus may need to intervene on Chastain’s behalf, but for drivers with longer odds to win, they will need all of Mount Olympus to make a trip to Indiana on Sunday.
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