Tuesday features a massive 17-game MLB slate. That includes a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET, which is what this piece will focus on.
Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
It’s always risky to pick against the Dodgers, who are clearly the most talented team in baseball at this point. That said, even the Dodgers lose more than 40% of their games.
The Phillies are also red-hot at the moment. They’ve won eight of their past 10 games, which has vaulted them into first place in the NL East. Their offense has been propelled by Bryce Harper, who has posted a ridiculous 222 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Overall, they rank eighth in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 14 days. They’ll be facing one of the toughest right-handers possible in Max Scherzer, but I still expect the Phillies to put up some runs.
The Phillies will have a quality right-hander of their own on the mound in Aaron Nola. His traditional stats aren’t great — he’s 7-6 with a 4.49 ERA — but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been significantly unlucky. Nola has also been much better at home than he has on the road, pitching to a 2.62 FIP at Citizens Bank Park.
The Yankees are another team that has been playing well recently. They’ve won nine of their last 11 games, but I’m a bit more skeptical about their results. Those wins haven’t come against tough competition, and their offense is still underperforming. They rank just 21st in wRC+ over the past 14 days, so their success has been more due to their pitching.
Nestor Cortes will take the mound on Tuesday, and he’s been an unsung hero for the Yankees of late. He’s pitched to an outstanding 2.15 ERA over 37 2/3 innings this season, but that stands out as a major outlier. He’s posted an ERA of 5.67 or worse in each of the past three seasons, so his 4.09 xFIP in 2021 is probably a more honest indicator of his talent.
I’m not expecting the Royals offense to tear the cover off the ball, but I think they’re underpriced in this matchup.
This number may feel low at first glance. It’s the only nine-inning game with a total below eight runs on today’s slate, and Kolby Allard vs. Logan Gilbert doesn’t stand out as an elite pitching matchup. That said, both pitchers have the potential to pitch like aces on Tuesday.
Gilbert is the easier option to make a case for. He entered the season as a premier pitching prospect — he was ranked No. 35 in baseball per FanGraphs — and he’s pitched well to start his career. He’s pitched to a 3.24 FIP and a 10.56 K/9, which are impressive marks for a 24-year-old. He should have no problems dominating a Rangers’ offense that ranks 27th in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 14 days.
Allard doesn’t have the same pedigree, but he’s posted a respectable 4.27 xFIP this season. The Mariners also rank just 25th in wRC+ against southpaws this season, so Allard should be able to hold his own.
Overall, I expect this to be a low-scoring contest, and the sharps appear to agree. Only 31% of the bets have landed on the under in this contest, but those bets account for 73% of the betting dollars. That’s one of the largest discrepancies on the slate.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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