Football season is upon us, and that means it’s time to start diving into the futures markets on DraftKings Sportsbook. One of my favorite futures markets is looking at season long players props. I’m generally an under bettor when we look at the full season, but for this one we’ll be backing the No. 1 overall pick, but not in the way you might think.
As I mentioned in the open, when we look at player props that apply to the full season, I’m generally an under bettor. There’s just more paths to victory betting unders, with one of them being a full 17-game season to suffer an injury and miss some games. So it takes a very low line in my eyes to bet an over, and I think we have a spot to do so here.
There’s not much downside with Trevor Lawrence — as one of the most heralded QB prospects in ages, an injury or suspension is the only way we don’t see the No. 1 overall pick start 17 games in 2021. He’s the man in Jacksonville, and we know the Jacksonville Jaguars will give him every opportunity to succeed.
Getting to four rushing touchdowns for a QB in the modern NFL isn’t that difficult at all. Cam Newton led the way in 2020 at the QB position, rushing for 12 touchdowns in 15 games. He was one of 12 QBs to rush for at least four touchdowns last season, if we include Taysom Hill in that group.
We also saw three more QBs rush for three touchdowns, but only play in 10 or fewer games — Dak Prescott played in five games before his season-ending injury, and Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa each rushed for three in 10 starts. The point is, if healthy, this isn’t tough to do.
It’s even less difficult for an athletic QB with plenty of mobility, as Lawrence was at Clemson. Going back to his final two seasons at Clemson, Lawrence played in 25 games while rushing for 17 total touchdowns (no fewer than eight in either season).
While his college teammate Travis Etienne figures to play a large role in the passing game, and James Robinson turned into a terrific find in the backfield, Jacksonville’s offense lacks a goal-line back. That could lead to more touches for Lawrence, especially after proving capable in college.
I’m shocked not only how low the number is on this prop, but that we can bet it at even money. I think we could be cashing this one by Halloween, but as long as we get there by Week 17, we’ll take it.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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