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NFL Best Bets: Damien Harris Over/Under Rushing Yards on DraftKings Sportsbook

Julian Edlow gives his favorite bet on DraftKings Sportsbook for Patriots running back Damien Harris.

Football season is upon us, and that means it’s time to start diving into the futures markets on DraftKings Sportsbook. One of my favorite futures markets is looking at season long players props. I’m generally an under bettor when we look at the full season, but for this one I think the number is just too low to pass up on an over play.

Damien Harris OVER 845.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

It’s tough to get on board with a season long over on a RB. Injuries will always factor in with a position that takes so many hits like this, and as we know as fantasy players, RB rotations are only becoming more popular. That means this number would have to be egregiously low to make a play on the over, and I think we have just that.

Harris practically took a red shirt season as a rookie. He was expected to have a big year in 2020, but began the season with an injury that cost him some time. Sony Michel handled the workload in the meantime, and while the two split work on the season as a whole, it was Harris that came on strong towards the end of the season.

Michel, who rushed for over 900 yards in each of his first two seasons, failed to reach 500 yards in nine games in 2020. Meanwhile, Harris didn’t play until October, but started his season with 17 carries for 100 yards at Kansas City. He averaged over 5.0 yards per carry, and ended the year with 691 rushing yards in 10 games.

Harris is appropriately listed atop the Patriots’ depth chart at RB, and should enter this season both healthy, and with some momentum carrying over from his success in his first real role in the NFL. I don’t care about the QB battle in New England, or if there’s a change at QB during the season. Cam Newton and Mac Jones are both good for the running game, just in different ways.

Harris was an absolute beast at Alabama, and with just 141 carries on his legs in 12 games over two NFL seasons, this kid should be fresh for 2021. An injury feels like the only way this one gets derailed. There’s even a little cushion for a minor injury here, or Michel’s role unexpectedly being larger than I’m projecting.

If Harris can average 70.5 yards per game (right around his average last year), he only needs 12 games to cash this over. If he’s healthy for the entire season, he’ll rush for over 1,000 yards.

UPDATED 8/31: Too much going on with the Patriots not to add an update here. Hopefully you locked this in at -110, as the price has crept up to -135. I think that’s justified and still worth a play, though. Sony Michel has been traded to the Rams, which on the surface looks like a good thing, but doesn’t actually help the prop. Rhamondre Stevenson and J.J. Taylor will both play roles running the ball in this offense, but Harris is the RB1. The big news out of New England is Cam Newton being cut. Mac Jones will get the QB1 job from the jump. I think that really helps the running game, especially for the Alabama combo of Jones and Harris. Jones’ ability to throw the ball opens up more running room for Harris. Not to mention taking a running threat like Newton off the field gives more touches to the RB room.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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