Friday is back in our lives. It’s a glorious thing. It’s also nice that MLB has almost all the games taking place tonight after sneaking up an early slate on his yesterday. 14 games beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET is what the people want and deserve. Let’s chat about it.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Anthony DeScalfani, $9,000, San Francisco Giants (-230) vs. Colorado Rockies (+185) — DeSclafani is expected to be activated off the injured list tonight ahead of this game against the Rockies. He missed the minimal amount of time, as he was just on the mound on Aug. 2 against the Diamondbacks. He was shelved due to shoulder fatigue and judging by the way he’s been throwing, it was justified. Since the All-Star Break, he’s posted a .365 wOBA with a 5.23 FIP and a 2.4 HR/9 through 19 innings. Luckily for him, he comes back to face a Rockies team that he’s flat out dominated in two prior starts. Through 15 innings, he’s shut them out while allowing just nine hits with 17 strikeouts. The biggest question here is how the shoulder will hold up and if he’s truly ready to return to the mound. He’s also pitched his best baseball at home this season, posting a 2.95 FIP, a .277 wOBA and just a 0.63 HR/9. If all things were normal, it would be hard not to back him in this spot but the injury concern is legitimate for me.
BREAKING NEWS: Same Game Parlays are now available! pic.twitter.com/dUg1dJ5pK8— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) August 5, 2021
Highest Projected Total
Baltimore Orioles (+200; 4.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (-250; 6.5 runs) 11 runs — So, I cheated here a bit. Technically, the biggest favorite on the night is the Red Sox and they SHOULD have been included in the top section. HOWEVER, there is absolutely ZERO chance I’m backing anyone in this game other than on a team total. We have two pitching staffs that are literally imploding before our eyes and nothing could happen at this point. So telling me I have the opportunity to back Nick Pivetta ($8,000) as a massive favorite? Yeah, I’ll pass.
The over I do have interest in. As I mentioned, both of these pitching staff, specifically the bullpens, have been disasters in August. Both teams are within the top five according to FIP with the Orioles at 5.90 (3rd) and the Red Sox at 4.69 (5th). The Red Sox have a ridiculous 6.5 team total, which is almost unheard of when teams are not in Coors Field. It makes plenty of sense though, with how bad this bullpen is. Spenser Watkins ($5,100) is taking the mound with his 4.56 FIP through 32 innings. He doesn’t strikeout batters at all and his xERA sits at 5.28. Watkins has also allowed four runs in three straight starts, coming against the Marlins, Tigers and Rays. Not exactly stellar offenses, right? I think we’ll see some huge numbers posted in this game and would not want to sweat out the under.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Adbert Alzolay, .409, 7.88
Mitch Keller, .387, 4.40
Michael Pineda, .339, 4.92
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Blake Snell, .215, 1.72
Patrick Sandoval, .218, 3.34
Zack Greinke, .241, 3.71
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jesus Luzardo, .404, 6.38
Mitch Keller, .390, 5.48
Blake Snell, .375, 5.42
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tylor Megill, .221, 2.59
Adbert Alzolay, .235, 2.73
Zack Wheeler, .249, 2.51
Pitcher to Build Around
Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, $9,200 — Ray continues to pitch like someone who should seriously be considered the American League Cy Young award and will look to push that narrative tonight. He takes on the Mariners for the second time this season, a start in which he held them to three runs on five hits and 10 strikeouts, good for 27.9 DKFP. He was a bit unlucky in that start, as his 4.50 ERA was accompanied by a 2.51 FIP. Since that start against the Mariners, he’s allowed two runs or less in six of the seven starts he’s made with at least six strikeouts in four of them. At $9,200 against a team with a 26.2% K% against lefties (2nd) he should be one of the top options on this slate.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, $5,600 — One of the stacks I’ll have my eyes on tonight will be the Padres, who have the luxury of facing Madison Bumgarner ($7,500) in Arizona. Pitching at home has been where Bumgarner has been his worst, posting a 4.24 FIP, a .333 wOBA and a 1.33 HR/9. To take that even further, Bumgarner has a 4.22 FIP and a 1.3 HR/9 specifically against righties here. As for Machado, he has a .334 wOBA, a .202 ISO and a 110 wRC+ against lefties this season. If you’re stacking the Padres, which you should be, Machado is smack in the middle of that lineup.
Save Big by Drafting
Robbie Grossman, Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians, $3,200 — Grossman has been raking at the plate, hits leadoff and is only $3,200. Feels like quite the bargain for someone who is averaging 9.2 DKFP over the last 10 games to be this cheap. Over that span, he has a double, triple, two home runs and five RBI. He also swipes an occasional bag and has 11 on the season. Tonight he’ll take on Zack Plesac ($8,800), who just got tagged for five runs (four earned) in four innings against this same team. Against lefties, Plesac has only a .293 wOBA but a 4.46 FIP and a 1.2 HR/9.
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