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MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks, Predictions, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for August 13

Nick Friar gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s MLB betting card.

There are a lot of ways to get in on the weekend MLB action via DraftKings Sportsbook. Thankfully, you have all day to process my favorite Friday picks below — no early afternoon chaos.

If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Brewers over 5.5 runs +100

There are a couple ways to attack Mitch Keller via DraftKings Sportsbook on Friday. His hits allowed prop is a legitimate option, but I feel a little better about backing Milwaukee’s game total. Keller has picked up where he left off since he returned to the rotation on August 1, giving up four runs and seven-plus hits in each of his two starts this month. In fairness, one of those outings was in Cincinnati against a lineup that’s been crushing right-handed pitching lately. But the other was against a Phillies group that’s been middling against righties in 2021.

Everyone saw what the Brewers did to Kyle Hendricks on Thursday after tagging Jake Arrieta for eight runs the day before. Keller is in for a rough night, and so is Pittsburgh’s bullpen. Although, Pirates relievers haven’t exactly had a ton of great nights this season. Things have just been significantly worse for them since the All-Star break, ranking among the five worst bullpens in ERA, FIP, HR/9 and walk rate during that span.

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Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins

Adbert Alzolay over 5.5 strikeouts -110

There are a lot of legitimate strikeout prop options on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s action. I don’t expect Alzolay to set the world on fire like a Zack Wheeler or Robbie Ray, but he and his 24.4% strikeout rate are enough to do what we need vs. Miami.

The Marlins rank 10th in strikeout rate against right-handers this season, and they’ve maintained that pace over the last two weeks. Moreover, Miami has the worst swinging strike rate since the All-Star break. That may have something to do with the fact they’re chasing pitches out of the zone a lot (and missing them), which also plays into Alzolay’s hand.

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners

Blue Jays over 4.5 runs score -130
Chris Flexen over 4.5 hits allowed -145

Flexen got into a bit of a groove after he last saw the Blue Jays on June 29. But that only lasted so long for the right-hander, giving up seven runs vs. Houston on July 27 and three over five innings vs. the Yankees in his last outing. And even though he limited run production for a few starts, Flexen was still giving up plenty of hits throughout his strong run, surrendering six-plus in each of his last five starts.

Now the Seattle right-hander gets to face a Toronto lineup that got to him for three runs on seven hits throughout five frames in their only meeting this season. Of course, that type of production isn’t an outlier for this offense. The Blue Jays have been one of the toughest teams on right-handers this season, ranking in the top five in OPS, ISO and wOBA against righties.

Also — specifically for Toronto’s run total — Mariners relievers may be due for a bit of a regression. The Seattle bullpen ERA since the All-Star break is a rock-solid 2.77, but their 4.39 FIP indicates they’re vulnerable. That might be problematic against a Blue Jays group that’s in the top six in OPS and ISO against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers over the last two weeks.

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