Saturday features a massive 16-game MLB slate. That includes 13 games starting at 6:05 p.m. ET or later, which is what this piece will focus on.
Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals:
Royals ML (-115)
This is a matchup between two teams who are clearly playing for the future. That said, the matchup couldn’t be more different from a pitching perspective.
The Cardinals will turn to Jon Lester, who turned 37 earlier this year. Lester was once one of the better pitchers in baseball, but he’s clearly past his prime. He’s pitched to a 5.57 ERA and a 5.50 FIP this season, and he’s striking out less than six batters per nine innings. The Royals own the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against left-handers this season, so they should put a ton of balls in play in this matchup.
The Royals will hand the ball to Brad Keller, whose career is just beginning. He hasn’t been particularly good this season, but his 4.85 FIP is better than Lester’s. He’s also reduced his walk rate since the All-Star break, which has helped him limit the damage.
The Royals seem underpriced in this matchup, and the sharps seem to agree. Kansas City has received just 32% of the moneyline bets but 71% of the moneyline dollars.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets:
Under 8.5 runs (-115)
Taking the under in Mets games has been a profitable endeavor in 2021. The under is 60-49-5 in those contests, resulting in a +7.4% return on investment. It makes a lot of sense when you think about it. The Mets’ offense has been absolutely putrid – they rank 28th in the league in runs per game – but their pitching staff has been solid.
The Mets’ offense should be held in check once again on Saturday. They’re taking on Walker Buehler, who has put together another strong campaign for the Dodgers. He hasn’t been quite as prolific from a strikeout perspective, averaging a career-low 9.26 strikeouts per nine innings, but he’s still pitched to a 2.13 ERA.
The Mets will send Taijuan Walker to the mound, and he’s regressed over the second half of the season. He was selected to his first All-Star game, but he’s posted an abysmal 9.70 FIP since the break. He’ll have his hands full against a potent Dodgers’ lineup, but he doesn’t need to be perfect for the under to hit. Even if the Dodgers can score five or six runs, I’m not sure that the Mets can keep up their end of the bargain.
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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants:
Rockies ML (+175)
Let’s wrap things up with a long shot. The Giants have been one of the best teams in baseball this season, while the Rockies have been one of the worst.
However, the Giants will be turning to an unproven starter in Sammy Long on Saturday. Long has posted a 5.81 ERA over 26 1/3 innings at the major-league level this season, so the Rockies will have a chance to score some runs.
Additionally, the Rockies will be sending one of their best pitchers to the mound in Kyle Freeland. Being one of the Rockies’ best pitchers is admittedly a low bar to clear – he owns a 4.65 ERA this season – but there are reasons for optimism on Saturday. For starters, pitching in Oracle Park is one of the biggest park upgrades possible for Freeland. Coors Field is the worst pitcher’s park in the league, while Oracle is one of the best.
Additionally, the Giants’ offense has been much more potent against right-handers than left-handers. They rank just 14th in wRC+ vs. southpaws, so I’m expecting Freeland to keep this game competitive.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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