It’s Sunday, and that means we’ve got a jam-packed slate with plenty of games to choose from in the afternoon and so many valuable lines out there that it’s hard to pick just a few. With that said, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Chicago White Sox weren’t the auto-bet they once were when facing a left-handed pitcher. The team that used to wear the wRC+ crown in this category is now clinging on to a fifth-place spot, and in the process has been slipping on offense since the final weekend of July with just a 105 wRC+ in general over that span.
The White Sox don’t have much to play for, and even with some memorable nights over the past couple of weeks have underwhelmed at the dish and had plenty of bad losses, including five of seven to the Royals.
Enter Nestor Cortes, who has been an expert at limiting big batted ball events with an elite 3.5% barrel rate in his handful of starts and has flashed great strikeout stuff over the past two years in pinstripes. He’s well-equipped to get flyouts and strikeouts here and gets to duel Lucas Giolito, who has a 5.01 ERA in 10 day games with 11 homers against him. The Yankees have begun homering again, enjoying Guaranteed Rate Field and some other smaller parks over the past couple of weeks, and should get to Giolito here. I just don’t trust the Yankees’ bullpen, so I’ll bet the first five.
Speaking of splits against lefties, can we talk about the fact that the Rockies are fourth in baseball right now against southpaws with a .771 OPS? That’s downright insane, as are their marks offensively over the past couple of weeks. Even though Colorado has struggled to find quite the same level of success away from Coors Field, it has still won some games on the road and put up some runs.
The Rockies hold a low 21.2% strikeout rate and beefy 8.8% walk rate against lefties and should make for a tough matchup for Giants lefty Sammy Long, however long he lasts in this one. Long has been strikeout-dependent throughout all levels, and in the big leagues has also issued a few too many free passes.
While he’s in a tough spot, the Rockies will have the pleasure of throwing Jon Gray in this one against a formidable Giants lineup. The matchup isn’t really a great one, but he did quiet this offense once this year and has experience against it. I like the value here with Colorado, which continues to get disrespected.
The Blue Jays entered this West Coast road trip with all the momentum in the world, smacking around the Red Sox for five wins in seven games, sweeping the Royals and taking two out of three at home against Cleveland. Things started out well with a couple of wins in L.A. against the Angels, but they’ve quickly gone backward.
Toronto has now lost three straight on the road and in the process of forking over its 3-2 lead in the seventh on Saturday lost George Springer, who had been the driving force behind this offensive resurgence. Without Springer at the top of the order, the Blue Jays will likely have no choice but to go with Corey Dickerson, who is an objectively worse option.
While I dislike the prospects of backing the shaky Steven Matz on the Toronto side of things, I quite like Mariners prospect Logan Gilbert and am enticed by his strikeout upside and ability to limit homers against a team that has done a ton of damage when making contact with the baseball. Gilbert’s exit velocity numbers aren’t great, but he’s sporting a solid xERA and 7.7% barrel rate, indicating not many of these are hit with the type of trajectory to do damage.
I’m a Gilbert believer, and he seems to get better with each start. You can’t say that about Matz, who has gone backward this year after a great opening to the season. Take the M’s.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.