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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for August 17

Garion Thorne breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

As we’ve all come to expect on Tuesdays, tonight’s slate is jam-packed with all the baseball goodness you could possibly handle. There’s 15 games kicking off past 7:05 p.m. ET, with the lone wrinkle being that this evening’s clash between the Yankees and the Red Sox will be Game 2 of a split doubleheader.

With that in mind, let’s dive into everything you’ll need to know to set a few lineups and place a couple bets.


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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

David Price, $7,700, Los Angeles Dodgers (-320) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+250) — It’s an easy rule of thumb to anticipate a correlation between a pitcher with a high winning expectancy and a pitcher with good DFS prospects on a particular slate. However, that is not the case when it comes to Price on Tuesday.

Though the Dodgers are justifiably favored at home against a Pirates team that’s lost 11 of its past 12 games, Price just hasn’t shown the necessary tools to consistently rack up DKFP so far in 2021. In fact, in the 38.2 innings Price has thrown since the beginning of June, the veteran left-hander has posted an incredibly underwhelming 16.4% strikeout rate to go along with a 4.65 xFIP. It’s blunt, but Price is a shadow of his former self right now. Considering he’s also failed to throw at least five innings in all but two of his appearances this season, there’s not a lot to like here.



Highest Projected Total

Chicago Cubs (+145; 4.5 runs) at Cincinnati Reds (-165; 5.5 runs) 9.5 runs — Alright, if I’m being completely honest, the only reason we’re not talking about Coors Field in this section is that the DraftKings Sportsbook has yet to post a total for tonight’s Padres-Rockies game as of the time I’m writing this. But, you know, I think we’ve all got a pretty good idea that runs tend to be scored in the altitude at this point. So maybe this is a blessing in disguise.

Conversely, this evening’s matchup between the Cubs and the Reds is a little more unique. Can you possibly trust this version of Chicago to pull it’s weight to get this game to the over? It’s going to be difficult, to say the least. The Cubs have mustered putrid marks in both wOBA (.290) and wRC+ (80) since the beginning of August, as they barely make enough contact to keep the opposing infield awake. Still, it’s not as if Vladimir Gutierrez ($7,000) has been all that spectacular himself, pitching to a 5.65 FIP across his past 10 starts. Also, with Kyle Hendricks ($8,100) on the other side surrendering a .382 wOBA to opponents since the All-Star break, it’s possible that a red-hot Cincinnati lineup won’t need much assistance from Chicago’s floundering collection of bats.


Weather Notes

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds — There’s a small chance for a delay, but such a stoppage wouldn’t be all that lengthy.

Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals Probably the biggest red flag on the slate, though the rain isn’t close to a guarantee. Keep an eye on this one.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Light rain is in the forecast, yet nothing heavy enough to be scary.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP (TBF)
Bailey Ober, .384, 5.43 (120)
Kyle Hendricks, .379, 5.49 (266)
Casey Mize, .365, 6.44 (226)

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP (TBF)
Luis Gil, .150, 2.06 (21)
Huascar Ynoa, .216, 1.50 (75)
Tyler Anderson, .240, 2.90 (128)


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP (TBF)
Wil Crowe, .410, 6.55 (203)
Eli Morgan, .391, 5.76 (130)
Daniel Lynch, .371, 4.73 (130)

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP (TBF)
Luis Gil, .192, 0.89 (22)
Alek Manoah, .209, 3.58 (116)
Reynaldo Lopez, .209, 3.18 (42)


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Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals, $8,600 — After setting a new career-high for strikeouts in his last outing, it’s certainly odd to see that Manoah’s price tag has dropped $500. It’s even more odd when you consider his opponent on Tuesday. Across the past two weeks, the Nationals have registered just a .116 ISO and an 82 wRC+, figures that make sense for a team that unloaded most of their top-end talent at the trade deadline. Manoah is viable on his own merits, too. The rookie right-hander has managed a 1.53 ERA and a 2.33 FIP over his last six starts, a stretch of time that’s seen Manoah lean on his devastating slider to the tune of a 30.8% strikeout rate. Simply put, the 23-year-old is a stud.


Stud Hitter to Pay For

Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles, $4,200 — Remember September and October of 2020? That two-month span where we all at least took one moment to ponder if Randy Arozarena was somehow the greatest hitter on the planet? Well, the 26-year-old is that hot at the plate once again. Since the All-Star break, Arozarena is slashing .357/.413/.690 with a .333 ISO and a 203 wRC+ in 92 plate appearances. It’s not the biggest sample in the world, but neither was last season. Tonight’s matchup with John Means ($9,300) is also crucial to note. While Means started 2021 extremely well, his numbers have fallen off a cliff since mid-May. In fact, Means has conceded 3.3 home runs per nine to RHBs in his last nine appearances. Yikes.


Save Big by Drafting

Corey Dickerson, Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals, $3,400 — We all know how expensive it can be to stack this dangerous Blue Jays lineup, which is why Dickerson’s modest price tag is so tempting on Tuesday. With George Springer ($5,900; ankle) unlikely to be available this evening, look for Dickerson to bat fifth against Erick Fedde ($7,200), as the veteran did versus the right-handed Logan Gilbert this past Sunday. That’s a premium batting order slot, especially with the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($6,400) and Teoscar Hernandez ($5,400) hitting directly above. It also doesn’t hurt that Fedde has surrendered a .439 wOBA to opposing LHBs going back across his past nine outings.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $500K Immaculate Inning [$100K to 1st]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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