The FedExCup (FEC) playoffs begin this week at Liberty National, with the top 125 in FEC standings all looking to advance in the standings over the next two weeks. Whether you’re Rory McIlroy ($10,000) at 26th in FEC points or Bubba Watson ($7,400) at 71st, winning one of these playoff events nabs you 2,000 FEC points, which is massive and should put the golfers in a great position to win the whole dang thing.
In 2019, three of the top six golfers in DraftKings scoring were below $7,000, and only one player was above $10,000 (Jon Rahm). The projected ownership distribution is looking like balanced lineups are the preferred roster construction. For GPPs, we should be focusing on building a more ‘stars and scrubs’ lineup to gain leverage with how the course sets up and historically how it’s played in the past.
Course history, current form or your favorite golf tout has pumped up the projected ownership for individual golfers throughout the week. This article will look at the projected chalk and pivot in each significant salary range when entering lineups in GPPs on DraftKings.
For a full course preview and who I like in the betting market, please refer to the DraftKings Preview and Best Bets articles on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the pivots we should be considering this week on DraftKings.
Projected Popular Golfer: Collin Morikawa ($10,400)
Pivot: Rory McIlroy ($10,000)
Both Morikawa and McIlroy should go heavily rostered amongst the top guys, and few are playing better than Morikawa at the moment. Rostering Rory is more of an endorsement rather than a slight to Morikawa, with how successful McIlroy’s been in the FedExCup playoffs with two titles and multiple playoffs wins. Rory ranks third in GIR over his last two events, the Olympics and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, and seems to be getting his ball-striking back to elite status. McIlroy also ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and fifth in approach over the previous 24 rounds; he was also T6 here back in 2019.
$8,000 to $10,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Daniel Berger ($9,100)
Pivot: Tony Finau ($8,200)
Finau’s allure has slowly been fading over the past couple of months, with a 15th as the best finish in his last five events. He’s also lost strokes with his irons in the previous four measured tournaments, but his price and projected roster percentage have finally regressed to fair market value, and we should be ‘buying low.’ Finau’s been fantastic on similar courses like Muirfield Village GC, Augusta National (Masters), and some longer, more challenging courses on the west coast that are akin to Liberty National. He’s also much better on bentgrass greens and can score on the par 4s measuring 450 to 500 yards, ranking 15th over the last two dozen rounds. Finau’s sentiment has been dropping since The Open Championship, which makes him an excellent GPP play this week.
$6,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Jhonattan Vegas ($7,100)
Pivot: Gary Woodland ($7,000)
There’s no doubt Vegas is playing the best in this price range, but a double-digit projection on his roster percentage is tough to back, especially with the volatility inherent in this range. Woodland’s recent events have been polarizing, with three MCs in his last four starts. Still, the one made cut was an 11th at the 3M Open, and he’s gained strokes through approach in seven of his last eight events. Hopefully, he can recall his runner-up finish in 2013 and bring back some value at his price and low projected ownership this week.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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