Monday starts off the week with a short seven game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at all the betting and daily fantasy perspectives for this one.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Andrew Heaney, $8,600, New York Yankees (-265) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+215) — Heaney is set to make his Yankees debut after being traded to the team at the July 30th deadline. I was very curious about the move when it happened and tonight will be our first glimpse of Heaney in a new uniform since 2015. When Heaney was away from LA this season, he posted a .316 wOBA with a 4.41 FIP and nine of the 16 home runs he’s allowed. He also posted one of his better months of the season, tossing 22 1/3 innings with a .310 wOBA and a 3.38 FIP.
Where the worry comes for me personally is the number of fly balls that Heaney allows. He has a 41.4% fly ball rate in 2021, which is one of the highest of his career. It’s one thing to give up this many fly balls while in LA but vastly different in New York. Being a lefty, he also has a tough assignment against the Orioles, who are a good hitting club against that split. The Orioles have a .322 wOBA with a .163 ISO and a 105 wRC+ against them. I would say this could be a sneaky spot to get a tremendous price on the Orioles but they’re running Jorge Lopez ($5,100) to the mound, so we can forget that idea. If anything, I think the over 9.5 run total in this game is the play.
Highest Projected Total
San Francisco Giants (-190; 5.5 runs) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+160; 3.5 runs) 9.5 runs — The Giants are heavily favored in this game and also have one of the highest team totals on this slate at 5.5 runs. The Diamondbacks are one of the better teams in league at hitting the over at 58-47-1 (55.2%) overall while the Giants are at 50-52-3 (49%). I can’t say I’m crazy about the over in this one with Anthony DeSclafani ($9,300) taking the mound for the third time this season against the Diamondbacks.
DeSclafani has run through this club in two prior starts, tossing 13 2⁄3 innings, allowing just four runs (three earned) on 11 hits and 12 strikeouts. Those starts gives him a .243 wOBA and a 2.06 FIP, backing up his good surface numbers. While I think the Giants should have little issue getting to Taylor Widener ($8,000), I’m not convinced that Diamondbacks will be able to make up the difference to hit the over. Widener has not been someone you can trust when he takes the mound, as he lacks control (3.93 BB/9), has issues with home runs (1.9 HR/9) and has a 5.67 FIP. DeSclafani, meanwhile, has essentially pitched well against every club except the Dodgers. I think the under is the play here.
Five of the seven games on this slate is inside a dome. So no, weather is not an issue tonight.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Suarez, .429, 6.16
Bryse Wilson, .395, 7.08
Jorge Lopez, .369, 5.29
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Ranger Suarez, .152, 2.37
Anthony DeSclafani, .277, 3.69
Chris Flexen, .280, 3.58
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Bryse Wilson, .376, 4.14
Jorge Lopez, .376, 4.76
Michael Wacha, .351, 5.38
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tylor Megill, .209, 2.36
Jose Suarez, .223, 3.68
Ranger Suarez, .252, 3.88
Pitcher to Build Around
Tylor Megill, New York Mets at Miami Marlins, $9,600 — Megill has low-key been a really big boost to the Mets rotation. Now he faces arguably one of the worst offenses in the league against righties in the Marlins. The numbers they have against righties are all near or at the bottom of the league including wOBA (.282) ISO (.124) and wRC+ (79). When it comes to strikeouts, they’re near the top, ranked 8th at 24.7%. Megill is far from a household name but the way he’s pitched so far, sporting a 3.44 FIP and a 9.9 K/9, he’s worth paying up for.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles, $4,700 — Rizzo will be stepping into Yankee Stadium as a Yankee for the first time in his career tonight. He has a hell of a matchup to start off on the right foot against Lopez. When Lopez is on the road against lefties, his numbers are downright putrid. Through 19 1/3 innings against lefties on the road, Lopez has a .430 wOBA, a 6.31 FIP and five of the 16 home runs he’s allowed on the season.
Save Big by Drafting
LaMonte Wade Jr., San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks $3,500 — Wade is listed as DTD for tonight but the expectation is that he’ll be back in the lineup. I love the matchup against Widener, who against lefties has has a .366 wOBA, a 5.36 FIP and four of the eight home runs he’s allowed. Wade has posted some fantastic power numbers against righties and has a surprising .355 ISO against them to go with his .418 wOBA and a 165 wRC+.
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