Can’t say Monday’s action features a ton of pitchers I’m high on. But all that means is I’m starting August off by back a couple lineups on DraftKings Sportsbook instead.
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Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Josiah Gray over 5.5 strikeouts +110
The rookie right-hander isn’t going to have strikeout props this low for long. Gray already has 13 strikeouts through his first eight MLB innings, punching out seven in four innings in his MLB debut and six over four vs. the Rockies in his first big-league start. Even if the Nationals cap him at 80 pitches like the Dodgers seemed to be, Gray has shown he’ll still rack up the strikeouts like he did at every level in the minors.
The Phillies don’t strike out a ton against right-handed pitching, but they also don’t hit right-handed pitching particularly well. So, this could be a start where Gray lasts a little longer and spreads out the strikeouts a little more evenly. Either way, his swing-and-miss stuff is going to be on display in his Nationals debut Monday.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Jorge Lopez over 4.5 hits allowed -160
Despite Anthony Rizzo’s hot start in a Yankees uniform, New York didn’t put up a ton of runs in Miami last series. But, the Marlins did trot out three quality starters vs. the Yankees — certainly three starters who’ve been much tougher on opposing hitters than Lopez.
The Baltimore right-hander has given up five-plus hits in nine of his last 11 starts. The length of the outings in which hitters have hit the over on Monday’s prop have spanned anywhere from two to 6 1/3 innings. Looking at the four teams who logged five-plus hits against Lopez, only one team had a higher ISO than the Yankees did against righties in July (the White Sox) and that same lineup was the only one ranked among the top 10 in OPS against right-handed pitching for the month.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Taylor Widener over 4.5 hits allowed +105
Widener hasn’t exactly come out of the All-Star break hot after holding the Dodgers to one run over 4 1/3 innings right before the pause in the action. Both the Rangers and Pirates got to the righty for five runs over less than five innings, racking up eight hits over 4 2/3 frames and five over 3 2/3, respectively. This happened despite the fact neither of those two teams have hit right-handed pitching well this season.
The Giants, on the other hand, have the best OPS and ISO against right-handers in 2021. San Francisco has logged five-plus hits in five of their last eight games against right-handed starters. That span includes games against Walker Buehler and Luis Garcia, who gave up five and eight hits to the Giants, respectively.
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