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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Phillies vs. Padres Showdown on August 21

Zach Thompson gives his top lineup advice for Saturday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Phillies and Padres, which starts at 8:40 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies v San Diego Padres Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images

This week’s Saturday night Showdown contest on DraftKings is the second game in an important National League series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres, who are each currently in the middle of the playoff race. The Phillies are five games behind the Padres for the second Wild Card spot and four games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. They surged into the race with eight straight wins to start the month but have gone just 3-7 in 10 games since. The Padres have also been scuffling, dropping eight of their past nine games, including the first game of this series, 4-3.

Friday night, Bryce Harper ($15,900 CP; $10,600) delivered the big hit with a two-run home run and the Phillies’ bullpen allowed just one hit over 4 23 innings of one-run relief. Manny Machado ($14,700 CP; $9,800) homered in the loss for the Padres, who will look to even the series by sending Joe Musgrove ($15,000 CP; $10,000) to the mound against Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola ($15,600 CP; $10,400). Both starters have been pitching well this season, which is why the game has an over/under of just 8.0 runs on DraftKings Sportsbook, where the Padres are favored at -170 on the Moneyline.

This shapes up to be a playoff-feeling West Coast contest and includes some intriguing fantasy plays on both sides, so let’s take a look at how to construct your DraftKings lineups for Saturday night’s Showdown contest.


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Captain’s Picks

Bryce Harper ($15,900 CP) - Harper has been putting together another solid season for the Phillies with 23 homers, 52 RBI, 12 stolen bases and 70 runs scored over his 101 games. He has a .276 ISO and .409 wOBA with a 47.9% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. If you’re going to attack Musgrove, it’s best to do it with left-handed hitters like Harper. Musgrove has been less effective to left-handed hitters, allowing nine of his 15 home runs this season to lefties and allowing them to produce a .304 wOBA (compared to .241 wOBA vs. righties).

Harper has had a power surge in August with seven home runs, five doubles, a triple and only three singles. He has a 58.3% hard-hit rate for the month and a .454 wOBA. His home run was a huge part of the Phillies’ win on Friday, and it gave him double-digit DKFP in five of his past eight contests. As with almost all power bats, he can be a little boom-or-bust as a Captain’s Pick, but he’s a good play in this matchup and should be able to continue mashing.

Wil Myers ($11,100 CP) - If you’re trying to get both SP into flex spots, you may need a cheaper Captain’s Pick, and Myers is a very solid play at this price. He hit a pair of home runs on Wednesday at Coors Field for 40 DKFP and also had a pair of hits on Friday for eight DKFP. Myers has been one of the Padres’ most productive bats recently, hitting .366 over his past 13 games with a .268 ISO, a .447 wOBA and 183 wRC+. He has also gone 3-for-8 with a home run against Nola in the past, and given his recent production, he should be in the lineup even though the Padres have a crowded OF at the moment with Fernando Tatis ($16,200 CP: $10,800) now playing in one of the corner spots.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $8K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (PHI vs. SD)


Value Plays

Jake Cronenworth ($7,200) - On Friday, Cronenworth took the collar, going 0-for-5, which snapped a streak of four straight games with at least nine DKFP. With Tatis now in the OF, Cronenworth has become the regular starter at SS and has hit .295 in his 16 games in August with seven doubles, three home runs, a .295 ISO and a .398 wOBA. Cronenworth has been much better at home than on the road all season, posting a .229 ISO and .376 wOBA at Petco Park, where he’ll take on Nola this Saturday.

Didi Gregorius ($6,800) - Gregorius is another Phillies’ lefty on the favorable side of the splits in this matchup. He has gone 15-for-55 (.273) in his 15 games this season with four home runs, a .218 ISO and a .341 wOBA. On the season, he now has 10 home runs and 36 RBI through 70 games. He brings nice power potential for a player under $7K and usually hits in the middle of the Phillies’ order.


Fades

J.T. Realmuto ($9,400) - Realmuto is one of the best hitting catchers in the game and one of the more recognizable bats in the Phillies’ lineup, but he has been struggling badly at the plate lately. He hasn’t had a multi-hit game in his past 13 games and has gone just 7-for-49 (.156) over that stretch with a 25.0% hard-hit rate. He did have one of those hard-hit batted events on Friday with his double, but he’s on the wrong side of the splits against Musgrove and has only gone 1-for-8 against the righty in their past meetings with three strikeouts.


The Outcome

The pitchers are really where the difficulty comes in for this prediction since both have shown they can be dominant this season but have also struggled more recently. Nola has just a 1-2 record with a 4.32 ERA in 33 13 innings since the All-Star break, and Musgrove has gone 3-1 since the break but with a 3.60 ERA. He had a rough outing in his most recent start, surrendering six runs on 10 hits in five innings against the Diamondbacks. However, I think he’ll be able to bounce back and be the stopper the Padres need in this matchup, as they try to get back on track in time to hold on to that final Wild Card spot. I think both teams will be able to have solid nights at the plate, but ultimately that Musgrove and the Padres do just enough to get the win at home.

Final Score: Padres 6, Phillies 4

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $8K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (PHI vs. SD)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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