Monday features a six-game MLB main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies ($8,100) — Both of the offenses in this game are dreadful. The Rockies are 43-22 at home and 14-45 on the road. The difference is stark — they’re on pace to have the largest differential in MLB history — and the reason is their offense — 65 wRC+, .269 wOBA and a .114 ISO. Not only do all of those numbers rank dead last, they are historic lows. In the future, you will say to your DFS buddies, “Remember that year when we blindly played any pitcher against the Rockies outside of Coors?” Kyle Hendricks has several weaknesses, but it’s unlikely that the Rockies will be able to exploit them. In the end, Hendricks does enough things right — 37% O-Swing%, 68% F-Strike%, 18% called strike rate and a 28% hard contact rate — to score 25 DKFP or more.
Other Option: Zack Greinke ($8,900)
Antonio Senzatela, Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs ($6,000) — Both of the offenses in this game are dreadful. The only concern is that for some strange reason Senzatela struggles on the road. It makes sense that Colorado’s offensive numbers take a nosedive on the road, but the opposite should be true for a Colorado pitcher. Nonetheless, Senzatela has a 4.19 away FIP and a 3.45 FIP at Coors. On the road, he has allowed a .381 wOBA, but he has held batters to a .306 wOBA in Colorado. The bright side is that he is capable of limiting batters and this Cubs lineup is capable of limiting itself. Since the new-look Cubs were revealed after the trade deadline, they have been one of the worst offenses in baseball — 30.1% K rate, 76 wRC+, .284 wOBA and a .119 ISO against right-handed pitching. Senzatela allows too much hard contact (39%) but it’s offset by his ground ball rate (52%). He is at the mercy of the BABIP gods and it hasn’t gone his way on the road (.385 away BABIP vs. .303 home BABIP) — that’s the strange reason alluded to earlier — but that could turn around at any time and should turn around at any time because Colorado has the third-best defense in baseball (5.3 UZR/150).
Other Option: Wil Crowe ($7,200)
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros ($4,900) — Paying up at catcher doesn’t seem like a winning strategy on Monday night, but it’s contrarian. Perez is in a good spot. DFS players cannot stack against Greinke, but one-offs will work — .332 wOBA, .199 ISO and 1.8 HR/9 against right-handed batters. Perez has a .201 ISO and 43% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Yan Gomes, Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners ($3,300) — Against right-handed pitching, Gomes is a below-average hitter, but he’s a stud against southpaws — .390 wOBA, .277 ISO, 144 wRC+ and a 46% hard contact rate. Marco Gonzales ($8,100) struggles with right-handed batters, .374 wOBA, .263 ISO, 1.9 HR/9 and a 50% fly ball rate.
Other Option: Seby Zavala ($3,100)
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners ($5,300) — No one wants to pay up for a lefty-lefty matchup until they look at Olson’s surprising splits —.435 wOBA, .323 ISO, 178 wRC+ and a 43% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching. Marco Gonzales has been better against left-handed batters, as he should be, but he allows a 37% hard contact rate to lefties and a good left-handed batter should be able to attack this weakness. For the BvP truthers, Olson has four home runs in 35 plate appearances against Gonzales.
Other Option: Yuli Gurriel ($5,100)
Editor's Note: Yankees 1B Luke Voit is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Braves.
Luke Voit, New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves ($3,100) — Someone is going to lose playing time in New York, but according to Luke Voit, it won’t be Luke Voit. According to Luke Voit’s bat, it won’t be Luke Voit — seven-game hit streak with a .620 wOBA and .462 ISO. There is absolutely no reason for him to be this cheap on Monday night.
Other Option: Yoshi Tsutsugo ($3,200)
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Marcus Semien, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox ($5,100) — Typically, the ace pitcher wins the battle against the stud hitter. However, it can be a different story when we add a second category — fly ball hitter vs. fly ball pitcher. Lance Lynn ($9,800) could mow down the Blue Jays or struggle, and if he struggles, then Semien could be the main culprit. Lynn has allowed a 44% fly ball rate to right-handed batters and Semien has an average launch angle of 19.7-degrees.
Other Option: Jose Altuve ($5,500)
Abraham Toro, Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics ($3,500) — Against right-handed pitchers, Toro has a .329 wOBA, .217 ISO, 114 wRC+ and a 13% K rate. He doesn’t hit consistently, but he has power and does not strike out. A power-hitting batter that makes contact isn’t usually this cheap.
Other Option: Jed Lowrie ($4,200)
Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners ($5,000) — The Oakland stack looks good on paper, but Marco Gonzalez is the type of pitcher that rarely gets blown up despite bad advanced metrics. Regardless of whether the stack works, Chapman should be fine on his own — .351 wOBA, .236 ISO and a 129 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. In 30 plate appearances against Gonzales, Chapman has a .497 wOBA and a .300 ISO.
Other Option: Austin Riley ($5,200)
Aledmys Díaz, Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals ($3,600) — Alex Bregman’s return is still days away and Díaz has a couple more opportunities to audition for a larger role on this team. Díaz has hit in 11 of the last 13 games and has a .397 wOBA over that span. Against left-handed pitching, he has a .405 wOBA, .254 ISO, 165 wRC+, 36% hard contact rate and a 15% K rate. Daniel Lynch ($6,500) has allowed a .359 wOBA and 38% hard contact rate to right-handed batters.
Other Option: Kyle Seager ($3,800)
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals ($4,600) — Against left-handed pitching, Correa has a .374 wOBA, 144 wRC+ and a 15% K rate. He lacks power and upside, but he’s much easier to fit into DFS lineups than other elite options. Daniel Lynch held the Astros to one run over seven innings a week ago, but it will be much more difficult the second time around. Not to mention, Lynch had a .235 BABIP with a 47% hard contact rate in the first matchup — regression is knocking.
Other Option: Trevor Story ($4,900)
Nick Ahmed, Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates ($3,100) — Over the last couple of days, Ahmed has been a popular option because he was cheap and facing lefties at Coors Field — he went hitless in nine at-bats. Wil Crowe ($7,200) is a right-handed pitcher and Ahmed doesn’t hit right-handed pitching that well, but Crowe is terrible — .406 wOBA, .252 ISO and 2.6 HR/9 against right-handed batters.
Other Option: J.P. Crawford ($3,400)
Starling Marte, Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners ($5,700) — Stack the Athletics, play one-offs, or roll with a mini-stack. Marte won’t cool off — since being traded to Oakland, Marte has hit in 19 of 22 games — but in reality, it has nothing to do with the trade. He’s been hitting all season (.374 wOBA before the trade and a .385 wOBA after the trade). Seattle’s No. 8 prospect, Cal Raleigh, has been a strong defensive catcher (1 rSB), but his ability to throw out runners will be offset by Marco Gonzalez’s inability to hold runners on (-1 rSB). Even if they were both above average, they would be no match for the league leader in stolen bases (39).
Other Option: Aaron Judge ($5,400)
Brian Goodwin, Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays ($3,800) — Against right-handed pitching, Goodwin has a .379 wOBA, .250 ISO, 145 wRC+ and a 37% hard contact rate. Alek Manoah ($8,500) has been a decent young pitcher, but not the phenom DFS players were expecting. It will take time for him to learn how to consistently retire big league lefties —.331 wOBA, .195 ISO, 1.8 HR/9 and an 11% walk rate.
Other Option: Jake Meyers ($2,400), Mark Canha ($4,100)
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