Folks, it’s been a MINUTE since we’ve paired up for this article. Shoutout to my guy Garion Throne who was gracious enough take over this piece for me while I was on vacation. Now that I’m back, I’ll be with you the rest of the season. Let’s get back into this and remind everyone how bad I am at everything.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Zack Greinke, $8,900, Houston Astros (-235) vs. Kansas City Royals (+190) — Greinke and the Astros are massive favorites tonight as they begin a three-game series against the Royals. The Astros somehow dropped three of the four games against them last week, one of them when Greinke was on the mound. To his credit, it had nothing to do with him, as he held them to just one run on five hits through six innings. In typical Greinke fashion, he continues to be one of the most overpriced fantasy options when he’s on the slate, as he DIDN’T EVEN RECORD A STRIKEOUT in that game. Thus, despite holding that offense in check, he only came away with 8.5 DKFP, brining his average over the last five games to just 14.4 DKFP. Quite overpriced for someone who is just shy of $9k, amirite?
From a betting perspective, Greinke has been a solid pitcher to back, going 16-9 in his starts. He’s able to keep offenses at bay but doesn’t do much for fantasy scoring. In the month of August, he’s allowed just four total runs through 19 innings but only induced 10 strikeouts. The Royals have not been much of an offensive threat during the month of August, ranking 25th in runs scored while posting a team .288 wOBA with a .124 ISO and a 93 wRC+. If you want to back Greinke, by all means but I’m not going anywhere near him in daily fantasy.
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Highest Projected Total
Chicago White Sox (-115; 4.5 runs) at Toronto Blue Jays (-105; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — The White Sox are slight road favorites taking on the Blue Jays. As road favorites, they’re 27-16 on the moneyline 22-21 hitting the over. They’ll be facing Alek Manoah ($8,500) who’ll be fresh off his worst start in the majors to date. In that game, the Nationals tagged him for seven runs (six earned) on six hits through just three innings of work. It wasn’t bad luck either, as his 8.17 FIP tells you everything you need to know. Despite being shutout yesterday against the Rays, the White Sox offense has been rolling, scoring 35 runs over the past week (10th).
Both teams on the season are hitting the under more than the over, with the White Sox at 51.3% and the Blue Jays at 53%. The easiest case for the under rests with Lance Lynn ($9,900) taking the mound for the White Sox. This is someone who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in 20 of the 22 starts he’s made this season. One of those starts was against this Blue Jays club, when he threw a dazzling seven innings allowing just one run on four hits through seven innings of work. With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see that games Lynn has started, the under has hit in 12 of those 22 starts, seeing a 8-12-2 record, good for 54%. I would be more inclined to take the over the White Sox team total than the over on the game total. The Blue Jays bullpen has struggled as of late with 5.99 FIP over the past week while the White Sox bullpen continues to dominate with a 3.57 FIP in the same span.
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Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Hendricks, .373, 5.46
Alek Manoah, .331, 4.54
Antonio Senzatela, .330, 3.26
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Huascar Ynoa, .214, 1.62
Marco Gonzales, .224, 3.80
Jordan Montgomery, .230, 2.80
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Wil Crowe, .406, 6.37
Marco Gonzales, .375, 5.58
Daniel Lynch, .359, 4.48
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Lance Lynn, .223, 2.57
Alek Manoah, .225, 3.59
Jordan Montgomery, .306, 3.78
Pitcher to Build Around
Ynoa has been stellar since joining the Braves rotation, making nine starts and posting a .277 wOBA, a 3.62 FIP and a 9.9 K/9. Home is where he’s thrown his best baseball through far, taking up 23 1/3 innings with a .230 wOBA, and a 3.04 FIP. With this game taking place in Atlanta, the Yankees will lose the DH and thus be forced to have the nine hole hitter as the pitcher. This Yankees team is striking out at quite a high clip against righties, especially with some of their acquisitions at the deadline. Overall, this team has a 24.6% K% against righties, which ranks 8th. Ynoa mainly throws two pitches, being a fastball and a slider. While the Yankees are one of the better fastball hitting clubs, they rank 19th against the slider, which he’s thrown 46.5% of the time. I think this could be another feather in the cap tonight for Ynoa.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees, $5,900 — Sticking with this game, we’re going to roll with Albies taking on Jordan Montgomery ($10,000). Albies’ numbers against lefties in Atlanta is the cherry on top of what’s been a stellar couple weeks for the Braves second baseman. To say he’s been hitting well lately would be an understatement, as he’s averaging 10.9 DKFP over his last 10 games, which includes three home runs, a double, triple and nine RBI. Then you factor in his overall numbers against lefties at home, which he boasts a .414 wOBA, a .304 ISO and a 158 wRC+.
Save Big by Drafting
Frank Schwindel, Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies, $2,700 — I’m shocked that Schwindel is still under $3k with the way he’s been hitting all throughout the month of August. I mean if I told you to guess the salary of a player based off a .454 wOBA, a .294 ISO and a 186 wRC+ in 68 at-bats, you certainly wouldn’t be saying $2,700. Nonetheless, here we are (and not mad about it). Antonio Senzatela ($5,800) has been much worse on the road than at home (so weird with all these Coors pitchers) and has a 4.12 FIP and a .332 wOBA against righties. The salary is simply too cheap to ignore.
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