Hey, hello. Tonight features almost every team in action with 14 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We have a lot to talk about so let’s get into it. Yeah? Yeah.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jack Flaherty, $9,600, St. Louis Cardinals (-250) vs. Detroit Tigers (+200) — Flaherty has picked up right where he left off prior to being shelved at the end of May. He’s made two starts since returning to the Cardinals rotation and looks as if he never left. Through 12 innings, Flaherty has allowed just two runs on six hits while striking 13 against the Royals and Brewers. Now he faces one of the most strikeout prone teams in the league as the Tigers visit St. Louis for some interleague action while subsequently losing the DH spot. While Flaherty has only made 13 starts on the season, the Cardinals are 10-3 on the moneyline in those games.
The Tigers enter this game with the highest K% in the league against righties at 26% to go with just a .303 wOBA, a .155 ISO and a 90 wRC+. That’ll play in well for Flaherty, who boasts a 9.7 K/9 on the season and an 11.7% swing and miss rate. Flaherty mainly features a fastball (50.2%), slider (28.4%) and curveball (13%) when he takes the mound. The Tigers rank no better than league average against all these pitches and at worst, 25th against the slider. With his pinpoint control (2.5 BB/9) and his ability to keep the ball in the yard (1.05 HR/9) everything lines up for a great spot to target Flaherty in all formats.
BREAKING NEWS: Same Game Parlays are now available! pic.twitter.com/dUg1dJ5pK8— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) August 5, 2021
Highest Projected Total
Los Angeles Angels (-135; 5.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (+115; 4.5 runs) 10.5 runs — This is one of two games with a 10.5 run projection, according to the DraftKings Sportsbook. The over has been a big fan of Camden Yards this season, going 33-23-1 (58.9%) for the third best mark in the league. To that end, we have two of the better teams at hitting the over going head-to-head. The Angels have done so in 54.4% of their games while the Orioles are at 53%. Judging by the pitching matchup, we could very well see the over once again tonight.
One of the biggest reasons to be excited about the over is Spenser Watkins ($5,300) taking the hill for the Orioles. This is someone who has allowed at least four runs in five straight starts. He throws a TON of pitches in a short amount of time and gives way to the Orioles bullpen, who are consistently giving up runs. In fact, during the month of August, this bullpen has amassed a 6.08 FIP, a 2.02 HR/9 and a 4.9 BB/9 through 80 1/3 innings. At the least, this is a nod to the over on the Angels team total, which is set at 5.5 runs. The offense is sputtering for the Halos but at the very least, this is a very enticing matchup. The Orioles get Dylan Bundy ($5,800) who returns to his former stomping grounds. He’s been “decent” since rejoining the Angels rotation but we all know the struggles he endured at Camden Yards. For what it’s worth, he has a 3.00 ERA in the month of August, which is accompanied by a 4.24 FIP.
Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs - The only weather concern will be in Chicago. Winds are blowing out toward right field to go with some rain. Keep in eye on this one.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Casey Mize, .371, 6.52
Tylor Megill, .369, 5.23
Jose Berrios, .359, 4.69
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Ranger Suarez, .146, 2.30
Tyler Mahle, .244, 2.61
Corbin Burnes, .244, 1.66
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jesus Luzardo, .409, 6.71
Tyler Mahle, .369, 5.27
Eli Morgan, .364, 5.08
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Corbin Burnes, .211, 1.52
Tylor Megill, .217, 2.29
Jose Berrios, .228, 2.83
Pitcher to Build Around
Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers, $9,600 — We talked extensively about Flaherty already but I do feel as if he’s the top play as your SP1. Corbin Burnes ($10,600) will be a very popular option as well and rightfully so. He flat out dominated the Reds in their prior matchup, striking out 12 through 8 1⁄3 innings of shutout baseball. I wouldn’t fault you for taking Burnes but I do like the $1,000 savings you get from Flaherty in a matchup with tremendous strikeout upside. You could even get wild and take them BOTH, leaving you with an average of $3,725 per hitter. Punt the catcher and you’re in business again.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins, $5,600 — The splits tell you to play Bogaerts when he’s at Fenway Park so I’m going to do my part and listen to them. He’s averaging 9.6 DKFP at home to go with a .411 wOBA, a .251 ISO and a 156 wRC+. He’ll be taking on Griffin Jax ($6,100) who has some really poor numbers against righties. Jax enters this game with a .362 wOBA, a 6.17 FIP and a 2.6 HR/9 against them. Home runs have been an issue Jax, especially lately, giving up four in his las three starts. This will be his first time facing the Red Sox, who rank third in runs scored at home this season.
Save Big by Drafting
Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers, $2,200 — Happy to finally be able to write up the Nootman. Twitter’s favorite player is a legitimate option tonight going up against Casey Mize ($6,300) who has some of the worst numbers on this slate against lefties. How bad you say? How does a .371 wOBA, a 6.71 FIP and a 2.63 HR/9 look? Bad, right? Nootbaar has been taking advantage of his everyday role and in the month of August has a .454 wOBA, a .324 ISO and a 188 wRC through 37 plate appearances. He’s a lefty, by the way. Figure you knew that but just checking.
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