Wednesday features a 10-game MLB main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers ($9,300) — First of all, toss out all of his early season stats. Since the end of May, Castillo has been a completely different pitcher — the ace he has always been. Over the last three months, Castillo has a 3.63 xFIP, 24.9% K rate and he’s held hitters to 0.75 HR/9 — impressive for a Cincinnati pitcher. Castillo has faced Milwaukee four times since his turnaround and he has held the Brewers to four runs over 24 innings while striking out 28 batters. The Brewers are not a great team against right handed pitching (93 wRC+, .313 wOBA, .167 ISO and a 24% K rate), but more importantly, they’re not a great team against this right-handed pitcher.
Other Option: Zack Wheeler ($10,000)
Tyler Gilbert, Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates ($6,000) — All pitchers struggle after a no-hitter because of the workload of the no-hitter, but also because the only way is down. Gilbert did not follow his no-hitter with another no-hitter, he struggled at Coors Field. So far, DFS players have seen two Gilberts: a 27-year-old tossing a gem in his debut and a rookie with a high BABIP at Coors. In either case, Gilbert pitches to a lot of contact and this leaves a lot to chance, but does it really leave much to chance in a matchup against the Pirates — 78 wRC+, .288 wOBA and a .123 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Other Option: Nick Pivetta ($8,100)
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres ($4,900) — DFS players should be well versed in who Yu Darvish ($9,900) is: great pitcher, but he’ll surrendered a home run to your grandmother — .216 ISO, 34% hard contact rate, 48% fly ball rate and 1.7 HR/9. As this is being written, the Padres has switched starters. Blake Snell ($7,500) will now start, but the same analysis applies. Snell and Darvish can be elite strikeout pitchers, but both are surrendering a boatload of home runs this season. Snell has allowed a home run in five of his last seven starts.
Other Option: J.T. Realmuto ($5,200)
Max Stassi, Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles ($4,100) — His price tag rarely reflects his stats — .373 wOBA, .225 ISO and a 140 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Stassi receives a park upgrade (Baltimore is the third-most hitter-friendly park) and a favorable pitcher matchup on Wednesday night.
Dean Kremer ($5,600) has allowed a .399 wOBA, .276 ISO, 42% fly ball rate, 2.6 HR/9 and a 16% K rate. Editor’s Note: Baltimore will start Chris Ellis ($4,000) on Wednesday night.
Other Option: Austin Hedges ($2,200)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($5,800) — Lucas Giolito ($8,300) can strike out 10 batters in a game (29% K rate) or give up multiple home runs (1.5 HR/9). In a matchup against Toronto, the home run scenario seems more likely. With Vlad’s impressive splits — .432 wOBA, .317 ISO, 177 wRC+, 43% hard contact rate and an 18% K rate — it doesn’t matter whether the right-handed pitcher is an ace or a joker.
Other Option: Brandon Belt ($4,500)
Jared Walsh, Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles ($4,300) — Since his return from the IL on Aug. 11, Walsh has struggled to find his swing. However, he has hit in his last two games, earning a hit on Sunday and two more on Tuesday. The lefty draws a matchup against a right-handed pitcher (.397 wOBA, .249 ISO, 156 wRC+ and a 41% hard contact rate) and a favorable one at that.
Dean Kremer has struggled with lefties — .363 wOBA, .247 ISO, 2.4 HR/9, 13% BB rate and a 57% fly ball rate. Editor’s Note: Baltimore will start Chris Ellis ($4,000) on Wednesday night.
Other Option: Michael Chavis ($3,400)
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Marcus Semien, Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($4,900) — A Toronto stack is not in the cards, but several Blue Jays have power against right-handed pitching and Semien is one of them (.370 wOBA, .264 ISO, 135 wRC+, 38% hard contact rate and a 46% fly ball rate). Chasing a home run or two against Lucas Giolito is far from far fetched.
Other Option: Kiké Hernández ($4,700)
Josh Rojas, Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates ($4,500) — This is cheating a little bit, but the second basemen below $4,500 do not look good. Against right-handed pitching, Rojas has a .361 wOBA and a 124 wRC+. In 36 1⁄3 innings, Mitch Keller ($6,300) has allowed a .414 wOBA, .175 ISO, 35% hard contact rate, 16% K rate and a 12% BB rate. NOTE: Pittsburgh has not officially announced their starter for Wednesday night and Bryce Wilson ($6,100) could draw the start.
Other Option: David Fletcher ($4,300)
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins ($5,900) — Bailey Ober ($6,100) is one of the weakest pitchers on this slate. Against left-handed batters, he has allowed a .379 wOBA, .228 ISO, 37% hard contact rate, 41% fly ball rate and 2.2 HR/9. Not to sound like a broken record, but Devers has some of the best lefty-vs-righty splits in baseball — .391 wOBA, .339 ISO, 147 wRC+ and a 47% hard contact rate.
Other Option: José Ramírez ($5,700)
Brian Anderson, Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals ($3,500) — Josiah Gray ($7,900) might be an ace someday, but he isn’t there yet. In 18 innings against right-handed batters, Gray has surrendered a .389 wOBA, .343 ISO, 3.5 HR/9 and a 61% fly ball rate. It’s typical for young prospects to struggle with the other side of the plate, but the fly ball rate is very high and presents value opportunities.
Other Option: Josh Donaldson ($3,600)
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins ($5,600) — The Boston stack looked great on paper Monday, but Jordan Lyles pitched his best game of the season. It happens, but scared money doesn’t make money and the Boston righties have drawn another great matchup. Ober has allowed a .232 ISO, 37% hard contact rate, 43% fly ball rate and 1.8 HR/9 to righties. Bogaerts has a .377 wOBA, .223 ISO and a 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: Javier Báez ($5,200)
Amed Rosario, Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers ($4,000) — He’s one of the hottest hitters in baseball — .430 wOBA, .207 ISO and a 175 wRC+ in August. Lefty Jake Latz — nine innings at Triple-A — will make his debut on Wednesday night. Against left-handed pitching, Rosario has a .390 wOBA and a 148 wRC+.
Other Option: Alcides Escobar ($3,600)
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ($6,400) — This is a dream matchup for Tatis. Yes, a Cy Young candidate is a dream matchup. Tatis hits right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching — .436 wOBA, .376 ISO, 177 wRC+ and a 50% hard contact rate. Walker Buehler ($9,700) looks great on the surface, but his stats stand on shaky metrics (36% hard contact rate, 42% fly ball rate and a .220 BABIP against right-handed batters).
Other Option: Juan Soto ($5,400)
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($4,200) — Tyler Gilbert ($6,000) — the latest pitcher to toss a no-hitter — could be amazing or he might allow too much contact. He’s lived on both sides of the BABIP spectrum — .000 BABIP vs. San Diego and .421 BABIP in Colorado. Reynolds would prefer the latter version. Against left-handed pitching, Reynolds has a .395 wOBA, .221 ISO, 148 wRC+ and a 43% hard contact rate.
Other Option: Alex Verdugo ($3,500), Brent Rooker ($2,700)
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