I was off the MLB Best Bets beat last Wednesday, but this evening, I’m coming back with a vengeance like no one’s had before. Sure, we’re sitting at a very profitable record of 35-18 for the season on article plays, yet I want more. I want a perfect 3-0 week. It’s been way, way too long.
So, with that in mind, here are my three favorite wagers on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
While these are two of the best lineups in all of baseball, an obvious trend has emerged when the White Sox and the Blue Jays square off. All five of the meetings between these two teams so far in 2021 have hit the under, with no game having more than eight total runs. Heck, Chicago had three runs before Toronto had even recorded an out on Tuesday, yet when things were all said and done, the final score was 5-2.
Looking at this pitching matchup — and understanding that the Jays have been in a bit of slump since the loss of George Springer — I just don’t see how this run of unders doesn’t continue on Wednesday. Robbie Ray has arguably been the best pitcher in the American League since the beginning of June, as his 2.22 ERA and 32.2% strikeout rate within that span of time lead all qualified AL arms. Then there’s Lucas Giolito, who has looked far better since the Midsummer Classic, registering a 2.86 ERA and holding opponents to a .269 wOBA across 44.0 innings of work.
There’s clearly enough power and offensive talent on both of these rosters to produce runs in bunches, but I’ll be siding with the elite starting pitching tonight.
I won’t pretend that you don’t have to pay a little juice to bet the Dodgers on the moneyline this evening, but it’s so rare to see this team below -200, even when on the road, that I have to get a piece.
The biggest reason for backing Los Angeles is quite simple: Walker Buehler. The right-hander has been pitching like a man possessed over his past eight outings, sporting a microscopic 1.33 ERA to go along with a sterling 2.32 FIP. As you might expect, the Dodgers have been pretty successful in recent months with this version of Buehler taking the mound, as the team is 11-4 in his last 15 starts.
Conversely, things aren’t all sunshine and rainbows in San Diego. The Padres are 2-10 in their past 12 contests and they’ll hope to stop the bleeding by sending Blake Snell to the bump on Wednesday night. The left-hander has looked better so far in August, racking up some strikeouts on his way to a notable 2.97 xFIP in the month; yet for the season as a whole, Snell remains in possession of a ghastly 5.61 xERA. He’ll also have a tough test in Los Angeles, as the team owns the league’s fourth-best ISO (.200) and sixth-best wRC+ (113) going back to Aug. 1.
Home Runs Allowed: Josiah Gray Under 0.5 (-105)
This might be a pretty dumb prop to pursue considering Gray’s early results at the MLB level, but that’s how little I respect the power potential of this Marlins’ roster.
Through 30.0 innings in 2021, Gray’s somehow managed to surrender 11 opponent home runs. The main reason for this is a massive 60.8% fly ball rate, yet a 24.4% HR/FB ratio certainly isn’t helping matters too much, either. In any case, the rookie is due for some normalization when it comes to his home run rate.
That’s where Miami comes into the equation. Not only is LoanDepot Park one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in all of baseball, but it’s also home to one of the lightest-hitting lineups in the sport. Entering play on Wednesday, the Marlins are in possession of MLB’s third-lowest ISO against right-handed pitching (.139) and its second-lowest ISO when playing games at home (.128). They simply don’t have the power to overcome their surroundings and I’d expect Gray is able to take advantage of that fact and keep the ball in the yard.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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