Saturday features another full baseball slate, with all 30 MLB teams in action. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Marlins ML (-110)
Saturday’s contest between the Reds and Marlins features a pitching rematch from last week. Sandy Alcantara faced off with Vladimir Gutierrez last Sunday, and both pitchers were excellent. Gutierrez allowed just one run over seven innings, while Alcantara allowed two runs over seven innings. They also combined for 19 strikeouts.
The Reds were ultimately able to win that contest, but that game was in Cincinnati. Saturday’s rematch is in Miami, where Alcantara has dominated all season. He owns a 2.43 ERA and a 3.04 FIP at home, and opposing batters have managed a paltry .235 wOBA against him. Alcantara has limited the Braves and Yankees to just one run over 15 innings in his past two home starts, so he has the ability to find success against another strong offensive team in the Reds on Saturday.
Gutierrez’s performance is more of an outlier. He owns a respectable 3.68 ERA through 16 starts this season, but his 4.78 FIP suggests that he’s been worse than his traditional stats indicate. I feel much more comfortable with Alcantara than with Gutierrez, so I’ll back the Marlins in this matchup.
Under 8.0 runs (-110)
The Mets’ offense has gone from disappointing to a joke. They entered the year with big expectations, but they rank 29th in the league in runs per game. They were limited to one run last night by Paolo Espino and a Nationals’ bullpen that owns the eighth-worst ERA in baseball. At this point, I’m not sure if they could put up runs in a slow-pitch softball game.
However, the one thing the Mets can do is pitch. They’ll send Marcus Stroman to the mound on Saturday, and he owns a sparkling 2.84 ERA this season. He should be able to limit the damage against the Nationals, which would set up another low-scoring affair.
The under has gone a ridiculous 70-52-5 in Mets games this season, rewarding bettors with a +11.6% return on investment. Stroman has also been their most profitable under pitcher, with the under going 17-8-1 in his 26 starts. I’m not overthinking this one.
Rockies ML (+195)
Let’s end things with a long shot. The Dodgers are the most talented team in baseball, while the Rockies are one of the least talented in the league. That said, that talent discrepancy will not be evident on the mound in this matchup.
The Rockies will send Jon Gray to the mound, who is their best pitcher. His 4.13 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but that’s pretty good considering half his starts come at Coors Field. He actually owns a better home ERA than road ERA, but his FIP tells a different story. He’s pitched to a 3.56 FIP when away from Coors, which makes sense: His K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 are all better when pitching on the road this season.
The Dodgers will turn to David Price, who is not the same pitcher that he was in his prime. He’s rarely asked to pitch more than four innings at this point in his career, but that hasn’t stopped him from allowing at least two runs in each of his past four appearances. The Dodgers are just 4-7 in Price’s 11 starts this season, resulting in a dreadful -44.2% return on investment for bettors. The Rockies’ offense is also significantly better against left-handers than right-handers, so I think they have the chance to pull off an upset on Saturday.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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