It’s always my favorite day of the week to talk some baseball. Tuesday features every single team taking the field tonight and we’re going to talk about it right now.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dylan Cease, $8,400, Chicago White Sox (-265) vs. Kansas City Royals (+205) — The White Sox and Cease are the biggest favorites on this slate as they take on the Royals. When the White Sox are favored, they’ve been one of the most profitable teams in all of baseball, boasting an insane 57-28 record (67.1%). It’s even better when they’re home favorites, going 35-14 (71.4%). This is simply been a spot they’ve dominated and one that’s been great for those people who back them. Interestingly enough, these two teams have duked it out 13 times this season and are nearly dead even in the season series, with the White Sox holding a slim 7-6 advantage.
This will be the fourth start for Cease against the Royals, going a combined 16 1⁄3 innings allowing five runs (three earned) on 13 hits with 15 strikeouts and seven walks for an average of 16.3 DKFP. He hasn’t exactly dominated this team but he does carry a 2.61 FIP in these matchups. They’ll be taking on Kris Bubic ($5,800) who has 11 2/3 innings under his belt against this team and has allowed just two runs on six hits with five strikeouts. That includes his last start where he gave up just two runs through six innings. It wasn’t a fluke either, as Bubic had a solid 2.66 FIP in that start. He’s not much of a DFS option with his lack of strikeouts but Bubic has been better as of late. Nonetheless, I like the White Sox to win this one, especially with a Royals bullpen that’s seen it’s fair share of struggles lately, posting a 5.22 FIP over the last week.
Highest Projected Total
Chicago Cubs (+125; 5.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (-145; 5.5 runs) 11 runs — The battle of a team that sold off all their assets against a team that SHOULD have sold off all their assets. The Cubs will visit Coors Field for the first time this season and are underdogs. They’ll be running Zach Davies ($7,200) to the mound while the Rockies counter with Kyle Freeland ($6,200). I’m quite curious how this game will play out, as both the Cubs and Rockies aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts but of course, this game is at Coors. The Cubs have only hit the over in 44.5% of the games while the Rockies are at 45.6%. The over hasn’t been hitting at at Coors Field as much as you’d think either, going just 22-29-2 for only 43.1%. I can’t say I’m crazy about taking the over in this game at all. 11 runs feels like a lot to overcome, even with two mediocre pitchers taking the mound. This is going to be a stay away spot from me.
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Weather Notes
Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies - We could see some rain here tonight but it’s unclear if and when it will get over the park. Keep an eye on this one.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Johnny Cueto, .348, 4.49
Garrett Richards, .342, 4.54
Zach Davies, .338, 5.31
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Yusei Kikuchi, .168, 3.08
Blake Snell, .238, 1.96
Sean Manaea, .241, 3.39
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jon Lester, .395, 6.19
Garrett Richards, .395, 5.51
Blake Snell, .380, 5.49
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Nestor Cortes, .205, 2.11
Jose Suarez, .223, 3.68
Walker Buehler, .226, 3.20
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals $9,700 — Targeting another team that got rid of almost everyone, Wheeler is in a fantastic spot against the Nationals. He’s had mixed results against this club this season but with all the big bats out of the picture (except Juan Soto) this should be a great spot to capitalize. Wheeler has a 3.11 FIP through 23 1⁄3 innings and a 23.8% K% against this team before all the moves were made. The Nationals have a projected team total of 3.5 runs in this game with the over getting some heavy juice at -140. We have a number of teams with a 3.5 run total for tonight but the -140 is the largest line on the board.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Kris Bryant, San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, $5,000 — Man, it is so weird seeing a team other than the Cubs associated with Bryant.
Anyways, a team that hits lefties extremely well got even better with the acquisition of Bryant. On the season, he has a .473 wOBA, a .367 ISO and a 199 wRC+ against them. Now, he faces our favorite lefty to target against in Madison Bumgarner ($8,200). He’s yet to face the Giants this season but he’ll do so at home, where he’s been hit the hardest. Through 33 2/3 innings at home, Bumgarner has a .341 wOBA, a 4.20 FIP and a 1.3 HR/9. I think he’ll be in a lot of trouble early and this lineup simply doesn’t let up against lefties.
Save Big by Drafting
Myles Straw, Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays, $2,100 — It’s a move you likely didn’t even know occurred during the flurry of a trade deadline but I loved seeing Straw go to the Indians. He’s made his presence felt immediately, going 4-for-13 with a double, four runs scored and a stolen base in his first three games. He’s hit leadoff in two of those games so I’m hoping we get that once again tonight. Straw isn’t a big power guy but I like the speed he has at a cheap price.
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